The NFL is only 13 days away from kicking off its 2022 season. And that can only mean one thing. It’s fantasy football time! This is the year you win your league. This is the year you earn those bragging rights with all your friends. This is the year you avoid your embarrassing league punishment for coming in last place. All you have to do to accomplish these things is simple: draft the 5 players we LOVE and stay away from the 5 players we HATE. Seriously. It’s that simple.

Without further ado, The MVP Blog presents the 2022 version of Fantasy Football Love/Hate.

*All ADP’s and positional rankings are based off of ESPN’s standard PPR Fantasy Football format*

Love

Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas currently has an ADP of 74.3 in ESPN standard PPR leagues. He’s the 28th WR being drafted, on average. We haven’t seen a fully healthy Michael Thomas in 2 years, but my oh my, how special he was in 2019. And people seem to have just completely forgotten about just how good he was. In 2019, Michael Thomas set an NFL single season reception record by hauling in an unworldly 149 receptions. On top of that, he had 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns. He had the 9th best fantasy season ever by a wide receiver and outscored the #2 WR by nearly 100 points. In his first 4 seasons, Michael Thomas never finished below WR7 in a fantasy season.

Drew Brees retired. I get it. But let’s stop pretending that Jameis Winston is some bum that can’t play QB in the NFL. In 2019, when Michael Thomas was the best fantasy WR by almost 100 points, Chris Godwin was the #2 WR in terms of fantasy points. Godwin had 86 receptions, 1,300+ yards, and 9 touchdowns. Who was Godwin’s QB that season? Jameis Winston! Jameis Winston threw for 5,000+ yards and 33 touchdowns in 2019. For fantasy purposes, I could not care less that he threw 30 interceptions. My point is that WRs can have ELITE fantasy seasons with Jameis Winston under center. And when healthy, Michael Thomas is better than Chris Godwin. And you know what else? Michael Thomas doesn’t have Mike Evans lined up on the other side of the field like Chris Godwin did in 2019.

The other WRs for the Saints are Jarvis Landry, Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Chris Olave. With all due respect to Jarvis Landry, none of those other guys are taking nearly the same target share as Evans took away from Godwin in 2019. The Saints TEs are Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill. Those two have a combined 76 receptions in the NFL. Michael Thomas had double that in 2019 alone. Alvin Kamara is the only one taking targets away from Thomas in this offense. If Michael Thomas is even an inkling of his former self, which I honestly believe he will be, he will finish the season as a top 10 fantasy WR and win people leagues. He is a steal in round 8, which is where he is currently going. You just don’t find guys with WR1 upside like that in round 8.

Juju Smith-Schuster

After a rocky end to his career in Pittsburgh, Juju Smith-Schuster has a new home. And he couldn’t have possibly landed in a better situation. With no more Tyreek Hill in Kansas City, Juju immediately steps into the #1 WR role for the Chiefs. While Travis Kelce is basically a WR1, the opportunity is still plentiful for Juju to have a huge bounce back season. Patrick Mahomes is, obviously, an elite quarterback. Mahomes threw for 4,800+ yards and 37 touchdowns in a “down” year in 2021.

Juju currently has an ADP of 82.2 and is the 33rd WR off the board, on average. He is one spot below Hunter Renfrow. With all due respect to Renfrow and Carr, Renfrow is the 3rd option in that offense playing alongside a top-3 WR in the NFL and Patrick Mahomes isn’t throwing him the football.

Juju had a great rookie season in 2017, but year 2 was really his coming out party. Playing alongside Antonio Brown, Juju tallied 111 receptions, 1,426 yards, and 7 touchdowns. The following year, Juju was set to explode with departure of Antonio Brown. Teams focused all their attention on Juju, however, and he had an incredibly disappointing year. He had a nice bounce back in 2020, registering 97 catches for 831 yards and 9 touchdowns. It’s important to remember that Big Ben had very little arm left at this point and the entire Steelers offense was dink and dunk. They rarely threw the ball 10 yards down the field. Juju played 5 disappointing games in 2021 before being shut down with a shoulder injury. With the emergence of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, it was time for Juju to find a new home and get a fresh start.

The last time that Juju was the #2 option in an offense with a great QB, he put up fantastic numbers. I get that playing alongside Kelce isn’t the same as playing alongside AB but playing with a great pass catcher takes pressure off of everyone regardless. I just can’t wrap my head around his ADP. He’s the #1 WR in a Patrick Mahomes led offense. He has top-10 WR upside. And people are picking Darnell Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Gabriel Davis, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, and Hunter Renfrow ahead of him. It’s comical, really. Do yourself a favor, and don’t leave your fantasy draft without Juju Smith-Schuster. He has league winning upside in the 9th round. Thank me later.

Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley was set up for failure in 2021. His head coach was a former special teams coordinator, and his offensive coordinator was the king of mediocrity himself, Jason Garrett. Plus, the team employed Freddie Kitchens as a “senior offensive assistant.” That offense was screwed from day one. Add in the horrendous offensive line play, and Barry Sanders would’ve sucked if put into the same position as Saquon Barkley.

2022 is a fresh start for the New York Giants organization. Brian Daboll takes over after leading a great Bills offense. The new offensive coordinator is Mike Kafka, a young promising coach who spent the last 6 seasons learning from Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy and developing Patrick Mahomes. I’d say he did an okay job. The offensive line should be improved with the additions of Evan Neal, the #7 pick in this year’s draft, and Mark Glowinski, who spent 2021 blocking for Jonathan Taylor as part of perhaps the best offensive line in football. Jon Feliciano also comes over from Buffalo as the team’s new starting center. Perhaps the biggest win for this Giants offense is that Freddie Kitchens is no longer employed by the organization.

Saquon Barkley was a can’t miss prospect coming out of Penn State. He had it all. The speed. The strength. The quickness. The elusiveness. The vision. He was the next big thing. He showed that his rookie season. In 2018, he ran for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also had 91 receptions for 721 yards and 4 touchdowns. In his second season, Saquon badly injured his ankle in week 3. He still managed to play in 13 games and put up nearly 1,500 yards of total offense and 8 touchdowns, all while clearly not being 100%. In 2020, Barkley tore his ACL in week 2. And I already told you what happened in 2021 and why that isn’t Saquon’s fault.

Now let’s get to the facts. Saquon Barkley is still only 25 years old. He is the healthiest he has been since the start of 2019. The offensive line should be improved. A new coaching staff is in place. And most importantly, Saquon is ANGRY. He is telling everyone to go f*** themselves. He has something to prove, and he’s motivated to prove all of you wrong. And it’s going to happen.

Saquon Barkley currently has an ADP of 29.9 and is the 15th RB off the board, on average. Saquon Barkley will finish this season no lower than RB8, and he has the upside to be a top 3 fantasy running back. The fact that a guy with this much physical talent is going at the end of the third round behind guys like Leonard Fournette and James Conner is absolutely laughable.

Rashod Bateman

I’m a huge Minnesota Gophers fan. I just want to be upfront about that. This could be a homer pick, but I really don’t feel like it is. I just feel like the upside is there for Bateman to win you your fantasy league. Bateman currently has an ADP of 92.2 and is the 34th WR off the board on average, but he’s in line for way more targets than those numbers would suggest.

As a freshman at Minnesota, Bateman came in as a bit of an unknown on the national stage. Nobody outside of the Gophers were really talking about him being the next big thing. 700 yards and 6 touchdowns later, and people were put on notice. And then in 2019, he vaulted himself into a first-round draft pick. He went for 1,200+ yards, 11 touchdowns, and averaged over 20 yards per reception. At 6’2, 210 pounds, his body was already NFL ready. Add in his 4.39 40-yard dash and 36 inch vertical, it’s no wonder why scouts were drooling about his potential.

Bateman never really found his footing on Sundays in 2021. He was injured throughout training camp and missed the first 5 games due to injury. He played in the last 12 games, managing 46 receptions for 515 yards and 1 touchdown. Very modest numbers. But he was a rookie without training camp playing in a running offense as the #3 pass catching target. The numbers may not reflect it, but Ravens fans couldn’t stop talking about the potential of Bateman. Every time you went on Twitter, the fan base was talking about how much better Bateman is than Marquise Brown.

Now with Brown in Arizona, Bateman is the undoubted number one wideout in Baltimore. Mark Andrews is still going to do his thing, but Bateman will be the biggest beneficiary. Marquise Brown was targeted 146 times last season. Most of those will be headed Bateman’s way this season. He’s going in the 9th round. The upside is huge. Don’t come out of your draft without him.

Irv Smith Jr.

At a relatively weak position where it can be difficult to find any kind of upside (tight end), Irv Smith Jr offers just that. Upside. He currently has an ADP of 160.8 and is the 18th tight end coming off the board. After a phenomenal junior season at Alabama where Smith put up 700+ yards and 7 touchdowns, NFL scouts were oozing over the potential of Irv Smith Jr. The Vikings selected Smith in the 2nd round of the 2019 NFL draft. Smith has yet to find his footing in the NFL, as his first two seasons saw him backing up Kyle Rudolph, and his third NFL season was lost due to a knee injury. Well now, Irv Smith Jr. is back in the Vikings offense with a healthy knee and is poised for a breakout campaign as the Vikings starting tight end.

This Vikings offense is going to be elite. Justin Jefferson is one of the top WRs in the league. Dalvin Cook is a top 5 RB in the league when healthy. Kirk Cousins is a very good QB in this league, despite all the hate that he gets from Vikings fans. Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn are a very solid 2/3 WR. Add in a new coach in Kevin O’Connell, and all the pieces are in place for this to be a top 5 offense. There will be no more of this old school, establish the run at all costs offense that was a Mike Zimmer staple. If the run game isn’t working, O’Connell will throw the ball 60 times. And with a quarterback who can turn into Captain Checkdown at times, this offense could be a tight ends dream. There’s so much talent around Irv Smith Jr., that he won’t be who the defense is worried about.

Tyler Conklin was the starting tight end for the Vikings in 2021. Conklin caught 61 passes on 87 targets and racked up nearly 600 yards and 3 touchdowns. With all due respect to Tyler Conklin, Irv Smith Jr. is much more talented than him. Add in the fact that this offense should throw the ball more this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Irv Smith Jr. get 100-110 targets this season. If Smith Jr. stays healthy, he will absolutely be a top 10 tight end this season. Cole Kmet, Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee, and David Njoku are all going ahead of Irv Smith Jr. If you are going to wait that long to pick up a tight end, due yourself a favor and take Irv Smith Jr.

Hate

Kyle Pitts

Let me be clear. Kyle Pitts is a phenomenal football player. He has the body of a tight end at 6’6″, 250 pounds, ut he has the physical attributes of a great wide receiver. His 4.44 40-yard dash is just unheard of at this position. Kyle Pitts has the potential to be the greatest tight end the NFL has ever seen by the time it’s all said and done. I hate nothing about Kyle Pitts, except for the situation that he is in this season. Kyle Pitts has an ADP of 37.1 and is the 3rd TE off the board. I’m here to explain to you why this is a terrible pick and why Kyle Pitts will not be a top 3 TE in fantasy this season.

Let’s start with the obvious. This Falcons team is bad. Like really bad. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. A 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson is back as the team’s starting RB. They’ll have virtually no rushing attack. Drake London, a rookie, is the team’s undisputed #1 receiver. Marcus Mariota is the starting QB. Let’s just be perfectly blunt. Marcus Mariota is not a good quarterback. And not good may be being too nice. Marcus Mariota is a horrible NFL quarterback. It won’t be any better, but the Falcons are much better off just throwing Desmond Ridder into the fire and letting him learn by failure.

I’m going to read your mind right now. You are thinking to yourself that Kyle Pitts was great last season in a very bad offense. He was (kind of), but there was a huge difference. He had Matt Ryan, a borderline HOF QB, throwing him the football. He also had Calvin Ridley for the first 5 games to take eyes off of him initially. Let’s also not ignore the fact that Kyle Pitts scored only one singular touchdown last season in a better situation. Kyle Pitts will be double covered on every single route this season. If there is a route where he isn’t, the opposing defensive coordinator should be fired on the spot. Kyle Pitts is literally the only player in this Falcons offense that can hurt you. I just don’t see any path to him being a top 3 tight end this season.

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever touch the gridiron. He can make any throw into any window. He can throw on the run. He can read defenses like a book. But who on God’s green earth is he going to throw the football to this year? Davante Adams is in Las Vegas. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is in Kansas City. His number one receiver is Allen Lazard. His number two and three receivers are Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb. The number four receiver is Christian Watson. This is one of the worst wide receiver rooms I can remember in recent memory. How is Allen Lazard a WR1 in the NFL?!?!? And it’s not even like Aaron Rodgers has an elite tight end to throw to. Robert Tonyan is incredibly mediocre. The backfield duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon is the only other bright spot of this Packers offense.

Aaron Rodgers has an ADP of 77.5 and is the 7th QB being drafted. He is being taken before Tom Brady (who has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin once he returns), Dak Prescott (who has Ceedee Lamb and Dalton Schultz), Joe Burrow (who has Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd), and Matthew Stafford (who still has that guy named Cooper Kupp). Isn’t it incredible that Tyler Boyd would be the WR1 on the Packers, but on the Bengals, he is clearly the WR3?

If there is anyone that can do more with less, it is Aaron Rodgers. But this Packers team isn’t going to win games by flinging the rock all over the field. They are going to have to win games by controlling time of possession and featuring a HEAVY dose of Jones and Dillon. Do not draft Rodgers before the likes of Brady, Burrow, and Prescott.

Marquise Brown

I just can’t get behind Marquise Brown being a top 25 fantasy receiver this season. He is currently going as WR22 with an ADP of 59.4. He finished last season as the WR22 in fantasy, albeit he was WR11 in the 11 games that Lamar Jackson played last season. However, Brown isn’t in Baltimore anymore, and that change of scenery negatively impacts his fantasy value.

In Arizona, Brown will find that there are a lot more mouths to feed. That is what I am nervous about with Marquise Brown. DeAndre Hopkins being out the first 6 games helps the cause for Brown, but once he returns, his target share will drop dramatically. AJ Green had 800+ yards a season ago, showing that he still has something left in the tank. Rondale Moore is a young, exciting WR that the Cardinals are going to try to get touches as he enters year 2. Zach Ertz is still a very viable tight end. When Hopkins returns, there are 4-5 very viable targets on this offense. In Baltimore, it was more or less just Brown and Mark Andrews. Barring injuries, I don’t see a path to Brown being a top 25 receiver. I’m taking guys like Courtland Sutton, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Michael Thomas all day long before I even think about Marquise Brown.

Mike Williams

Mike Williams NFL career can be summed up in one word: inconsistent. Williams was selected 7th overall out of Clemson by the Chargers in 2017. As a rookie, he barely saw the field, catching only 11 passes all year long. In year two, Williams caught 10 touchdowns! In year 3, he went over 1000 yards for the first time, but only managed 2 touchdowns. At 6’4, 220 pounds, how do you only have two touchdowns?!?!? 75% of the red zone targets should be coming your way! 2020 was the year. Mike Williams is oozing with talent and he’s finally going to put it all together! WRONG! 2020 was a major disappointment that saw Williams rack up only 756 yards and 5 touchdowns. Okay. 2021 is the year that the kid puts it all together. And it was. Kind of. Williams had 1,146 yards and 9 touchdowns. Incredible, right? Well, let’s put his season into perspective. It needs to be looked at in two distinct parts.

Part 1: Weeks 1-5. 26% target share. 51 targets. 31 receptions. 471 yards. 6 touchdowns. Fantasy WR2.

That put him on track for 105 receptions, 1,601 yards, and 20 touchdowns! The only problem is that is not what happened. Not even close.

Part 2: Weeks 6-18. 19% target chare. 78 targets. 45 receptions. 675 yards. 3 touchdowns. Fantasy WR25.

All in all, Mike Williams finished the season as WR12 in fantasy, but it’s all due to the scorching hot start. Why did his target share suddenly drop that significantly? Why has his career been so full of inconsistency? Why can a guy that is this talented not put it all together?

Mike Williams has all the upside in the world. This Chargers offense should be elite. Justin Herbert is as good as they come. Austin Ekeler is incredible. Keenan Allen is fantastic. People are RAVING about second year pro Joshua Palmer. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Chargers offense. But when you throw for 5,000 yards like Herbert did in 2021, that is no issue. Williams’ inconsistency just scares the crap out of me. I can see him going for 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns. But I can just as easily see him going for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns. Being drafted at an ADP of 47.1 and the 17th WR off the board, I will pass on Williams. I’m higher on guys like Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, and Brandin Cooks, all of whom are being taken after Williams, on average. And honestly, I would rather have Michael Thomas and Juju Smith-Schuster, too.

DK Metcalf

This one is very similar to the Kyle Pitts one. I hate nothing about DK Metcalf. I hate his situation. DK Metcalf is 6’4, 235 pounds. He has not an ounce of fat on his body. He looks like a Greek Adonis. He runs a 4.33 yards 40-yard dash and has a 40+ inch vertical. He is the most physically imposing wide receiver in the NFL.

His rookie season was full of promise. 58 receptions for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. Dang good numbers for a rookie. 2020 was even better. 83 receptions for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. DK Metcalf was becoming elite. But 2021 was a bit disappointing. 75 catches for only 967 yards. The 12 touchdowns kept him fantasy relevant. Part of the issue was Russell Wilson missing three games and then not being entirely healthy when he returned. Part of the issue was the Seahawks reverting to being a running football team. They stopped letting Russ just fling the football all around the yard, and they suffered mightily for it. Thanks to the 12 touchdowns, DK managed to finish as WR14 in fantasy.

But this isn’t 2021. This is 2022. And Russell Wilson is in Denver. Drew Lock is the new man under center for the Seattle Seahawks. In his career as a starting QB, Drew Lock is 8-13, throws for less than 215 yards a game, has only 24 touchdowns, and has thrown 18 interceptions. Those are bad numbers. Like really bad. Remember earlier when I called Marcus Mariota a really bad NFL quarterback. Well. Drew Lock is even worse. DK Metcalf’s fantasy relevance last season was thanks to his 12 touchdowns. It’s going to be next to impossible to repeat that number when Lock won’t throw more than 20 touchdowns this year. With an ADP of 50.9 and being the 19th WR off the board, I’m staying away from DK this season. I just can’t see him being a top 20 fantasy WR with Drew Lock under center. Give me Russell Wilson’s new targets, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton (both being drafted after DK), this season over DK Metcalf.

Which sleeper picks are you taking in your fantasy drafts this year? Which players are you staying far away from?

Leave your thoughts in the comments below!

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Author: Ryan Macdonald

Published: 8/26/22 at 5:00pm EST

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Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.

Sports Reference LLC. Pro-Football-Reference.com – Pro Football Statistics and Information. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. 26 August 2022.