The sun is setting earlier and earlier. The leaves have almost entirely changed to their beautiful orange and yellow colors. It’s getting brisk outside. Mid-terms are on the horizon. This all can mean only one thing. IT IS FALL. And that means it is officially time for playoff baseball. The Wild Card round saw some close games, some exciting comebacks, and a ridiculous game where the first and only run was scored in the 15th inning! But huge, tense moments were nonexistent. 3 of the series were sweeps, and the only game 3 was won by a 6-0 score. The only tense moment of that game was when the umps checked Joe Musgrove for illegal foreign substances.

The divisional series will be more hotly contested. They always are. As we get deeper into October, every single out becomes tense. One pitch and one swing of the bat have never meant more than they do right now.

The MVP Blog presents our MLB divisional series previews and predictions! We hope you enjoy.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(1) Houston Astros vs. (5) Seattle Mariners

Ryan: Two AL West divisional foes who already have a bit of beef. These two teams had a benches-clearing brawl in early June after Ty France was hit by a pitch late in the game. That incident led to two suspensions and 4 additional coaches being fined. There are sure to be more fireworks in this best of 5 series.

These two teams took different, but yet similar paths to get here. The Astros struggled out of the gate. They were just .500 22 games into the season. They then won 11 straight games and never looked back, bashing teams all year long and finishing with an American League best 106 wins. The Mariners also struggled out of the gate, but their struggles lasted much longer. 79 games into the season, the Mariners were just 37-42. And then they won 14 straight games heading into the All-Star break. A solid 2nd half record of 39-30 helped them secure a playoff berth for the first time since winning 116 games in 2001. The Mariners won 2 games in Toronto to advance to the ALDS. Can America’s team continue their run?

No. The Mariners aren’t winning this series. In the end, experience and pitching will win out, and the Astros have huge advantages in both of those categories. Here are the numbers for the Astros starting rotation from the regular season:

Justin Verlander: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP (Heavy Cy Young Favorite)
Framber Valdez: 17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Cristian Javier: 11-9, 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Jose Urquidy: 13-8, 3.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Luis Garcia: 15-8, 3.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

That kind of pitching is incredibly difficult to win a series against. The offense is headed by Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman. It may look a little different than the Astros teams that have made runs in the past, but don’t be mistaken, this team is still very very dangerous. Rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez is special, but the Mariners just don’t have enough firepower to hang with the Astros. The Astros won 12 of the 19 regular season games, and this series will be more of the same. Astros in 4.

Ben: If there’s one thing I’ve learned from watching the MLB Playoffs, it’s to expect the unexpected. There’s always one team that, for no particular reason, makes a deep run into the postseason and plays spoiler to a heavyweight contender. This year, that team will be the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners have always had that magic factor about them. If you want proof, I would highly recommend watching Secret Base’s wonderful documentary about the history of this outrageously weird ballclub. However, for the sake of my prediction, let’s focus on why this season has been special in Seattle. First and foremost, the Seattle Mariners broke their 21 year postseason drought by making the Wild Card against the Toronto Blue Jays. That drought was the longest active playoff drought in North American sports, and the Mariners finally overcame the odds to break it. Not only that, but in the Wild Card, they went into Toronto and won the series in remarkable fashion. In Game 1, Luis Castillo pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-0 win. In Game 2, the Blue Jays jumped out to an 8-1 lead heading into the top of the 6th inning, but the Mariners chipped away at the lead before J.P. Crawford (batting 9th in the order no less) hit a bases clearing double to shock the Rogers Centre crowd and tie up the game, 9-9. In the top of the 9th, Adam Frazier hit an RBI double to knock in the winning run, and George Kirby shut the door in the bottom of the 9th to send the Seattle Mariners to the ALDS.

The Mariners faithful have been waiting a long time for playoff baseball to return to T-Mobile Park. If they can use their momentum to steal a game on the road in Houston, I think they might just be able to close out the series at home. Mariners in 4.

(2) New York Yankees vs. (3) Cleveland Guardians

Ryan: Another series featuring two teams who have bad blood from earlier in the season. In a late April game, Yankees fans began heckling an injured Steven Kwan as he laid on the outfield grass. Myles Straw took issue with this and climbed the fence to engage the fans. After the game, Yankees fans began throwing trash onto the field, nearly hitting the Guardians outfielder’s multiple times. A horrible look for those fans. A horrible look for Myles Straw. If there is one thing I know about Yankees fans, it’s that they are ruthless and hold grudges more than any other fanbase in sports. But at least they know it and own it. Myles Straw will be heckled nonstop as he man’s centerfield at Yankee Stadium in games 1 and 2. He won’t be in centerfield for game 5, as this series isn’t getting that far.

The Indians manufacture runs. They don’t hit the long ball. They only hit 127 bombs this season, the second lowest mark in baseball. In the postseason, when the best pitchers throw more, the games get tighter, and every single at bat becomes more tense, it becomes so very difficult to manufacture runs. In 24 innings against the Rays, the Indians managed just 3 runs. All 3 of those runs were scored on home runs. The long ball wins this time of year. The Indians don’t have the offensive firepower to be a serious threat in this series.

The Yankees hit 254 home runs this season, the most in baseball. That number, of course, is inflated by the little league ballpark the Yankees play in. RELAX. RELAX. IT’S A JOKE. That number is inflated by Judge’s absurd season that saw him hit 62 home runs himself. He was carrying this offense completely by himself for quite some time, as the Yankees went just 19-28 to begin the second half of the season. But then Gleyber got hot, and the bats picked up all over the lineup, and the Yankees won 16 of their last 23 (although Gleyber missed the last 5 games due to an illness). Judge is the best player on this team, but Gleyber is the x-factor to how far this team will go. You want splits? The first line is his hitting from July 21 – September 9, the time period in which the Yankees went just 19-28. The second line is his hitting from the 16-7 stretch to end the year.

July 21 – Sep 9: .182 avg/.228 obp/.294 slg/.522 ops. 5 HR. 12 RBI.
Sep 10 – Oct 1: .391 avg/.442 obp/.696 slg/1.137 ops. 5 HR. 23 RBI.

Gleyber’s bat must stay relevant this postseason. They can beat the Guardians without his production, but they most certainly cannot beat the Astros without him. The bad news for the Yankees? The Twins did not win the Central. This isn’t the easy sweep it could have been. The good news? The Guardians don’t provide much of a challenge. They’ll find a way to win a game, but nothing more. Yankees in 4.

Ben: Playoff baseball is back in the Bronx. After a disappointing exit in the Wild Card at the hands of the archrival Red Sox last year, the Yankees took control of the AL East from wire to wire. It wasn’t always pretty, as the Yankees batting order is very prone to cold streaks, the bullpen has been ravaged by the injury bug, and the weaker players in the lineup have been error prone all season.

The reason this Yankee team is so dangerous in October (and the biggest reason as to why they’re here to begin with) is Aaron Judge. He’s finally put together a healthy season, and as a result, he clobbered 62 home runs, a new AL record. Not only that, but Judge was in the Triple Crown race down the home stretch of the season and he was an ace in the field all year. The key to the Guardians success will be shutting him down, and I expect to see some intentional walks in key situations to try and limit the damage Judge can cause them.

The New York Yankees played 6 games against the Cleveland Guardians during the regular season. They won 5 of those games. Beyond that, I just don’t think Cleveland has the talent to hang with a red hot Aaron Judge, a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton, and a starting pitching rotation of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. Yankees in 4.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (5) San Diego Padres

Ryan: On August 2^nd, the San Diego Padres sent waves throughout the MLB when they traded for Juan Soto, who is widely viewed as the best young player in baseball. They also got former all-star first baseman Josh Bell in that trade. The price was not cheap. They had to give up several prospects, including highly touted ones in CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. A day before, the Padres had traded for Josh Hader, who has been one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the league since making his debut in 2017. They traded away 2 prospects, a former all-star closer, and a quality young arm to bring in what they thought would be a shutdown arm at the back of their bullpen. With acquiring these three players, as well as getting Brandon Drury from the Reds, the Padres had not only won the trade deadline, but they had also become serious World Series contenders overnight, or at least that is what we all thought.

The results were not what anyone expected. Juan Soto hit just .236 with 6 home runs and 16 RBI in 52 games. His OBP was below .400 for the first time in his career. Yes, you read that right. His OBP has never been below .400 for a season. That’s how good he is. Despite the low batting average, his OBP was still .388 with the Padres. Josh Bell hit just .192 with 3 home runs and 14 RBI in 53 games. In 19 games, Josh Hader posted a 7.31 ERA and a 1.625 WHIP. His walk rate was way up, and his strikeout rate was way down. It’s not just that Hader didn’t live up to expectations, he wasn’t good at all. He was just downright awful.

With all that being said, the postseason is a fresh start. Juan Soto is still very capable of winning a game all by himself. Manny Machado had himself an MVP-esque season. That’s as dangerous as a 2-3 combo as you will find in this game. Soto/Machado is every bit as scary as Turner/Freeman. Add Fernando Tatis back into the mix next year, and the Padres are stupidly good. But even without Tatis, this team still has the talent and firepower to make the Dodgers sweat a little bit. This Padres team reminds me of the Braves making an improbable run to a World Series title without superstar Ronald Acuna Jr.

But this Dodgers team is really good. An MLB best 111 wins and an unworldly run differential of +334. That’s the highest run differential since 1939. Everyone knows about how good this lineup is. Any lineup with 3 MVP caliber players at the top is going to be absurd. And that’s exactly what the Dodgers have with Betts, Turner, and Freeman. I want to talk about this pitching staff though. I talked earlier about how good the Astros starting rotation has been. Well. The Dodgers rotation has been even better. And they are doing it without their ace, Walker Buehler, who had season ending elbow surgery in late August. Look at what the other 4 guys have accomplished:

Tyler Anderson: 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 1.002 WHIP
Julio Urias: 17-7, 2.16 ERA, 0.960 WHIP
Tony Gonsolin: 16-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.875 WHIP
Clayton Kershaw: 12-3, 2.28 ERA, 0.942 WHIP

What makes this staff especially good is that they don’t hand out free passes and they keep the ball in the yard. If they continue to do those two things, good luck beating the Dodgers in a 5 or 7 game series. It’s going to be tough. This series is going to be incredible. It’s the series that I am by far most excited about. There is going to be so much star power on one field. These two teams could combine to make a really good all-star team by themselves. Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman sharing a baseball field is must see television. And trust me, the Padres are going to make it a series. Dodgers in 5.

Ben: This is easily the most intriguing series of the four. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will battle it out to crown the kings of California and earn a spot in the NLCS. The MLB couldn’t have written a better script.

The Dodgers set a franchise record by winning 111 games in the regular season. They’ve amassed a lineup full of some of the best bats in baseball, including All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman, who starred for the Atlanta Braves during their 2021 World Series win. However, the loss of Walker Buehler, one of the best pitchers in the big leagues, looms large. The Padres comfortably dispatched the Mets in the Wild Card round on the back of some stellar pitching from Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. However, the Dodgers know that the key to victory in this series is silencing the big bats of “Slam Diego”, as LA’s hitters know how to produce regardless of who pitches against them. Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Josh Bell highlight a fantastic Padres lineup full of power bats and speed on the basepaths.

This is going to be an entertaining, hard fought series, and I think the Dodgers will have some difficulty taking care of the rival Padres. Dodgers in 5.

(2) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan: The Braves followed a very similar path to the Astros to get to this point. They struggled out of the gate. The championship hangover was real. 50 games into the season, the Braves found themselves at just 23-27 and already 10.5 games back of the Mets. They then won 14 straight and never looked back. A late season sweep of the Mets, and the Braves went from 23-27 to 101 wins and NL East Champions. Although the lineup features some different names than the one that won a World Series a year ago, it is very similar. It’s a very deep lineup. They can truly hurt you 1-9. And they do it with the long ball. 8 guys on this team hit 15+ home runs. And they have 7 of them in their lineup every day. And that doesn’t even account for Ozzie Albies, who would’ve hit that mark easily if not for battling injuries all year. And now Albies’ return is looming. It may not be the NLDS, but Albies is going to play this postseason. This is the deepest lineup in the postseason, and they are about to become even better.

The pitching staff isn’t too shabby either. Max Fried leads the way with his 2.48 ERA. Kyle Wright won 21 games. And Spencer Strider posted an 11-5 record, with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.995 WHIP. Spencer Strider struck out 202 batters in just under 132 innings. That’s a strikeout/9 innings rate of 13.8. But Ryan, that number is inflated due to his time in the bullpen at the beginning of the season. Everyone knows that the k/9 numbers tend to be higher for relievers because they aren’t saving any gas, they are just going all out for an inning or two. Well, think again! As a starter, Strider posted a k/9 of 13.84. As a reliever, his k/9 was 13.69. As a point of reference, Gerrit Cole’s k/9 this season was 11.5. The highest mark of his career was 13.82. Max Scherzer has never been above 12.7 for an entire season. Strider has been out for about 3 weeks with an oblique strain, but all signs point to him returning in the NLDS. Simply put, Spencer Strider is unbelievable. And what he did this season needs much more national recognition than what it has gotten.

I’m not even really going to waste your time talking about the Phillies. They snuck into the postseason with only 87 wins. Bryce Harper is nowhere near 100%. Nick Castellanos has been disappointing. Kyle Schwarber did his best Adam Dunn impression, hitting 46 home runs while batting only .218. J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. There. I said something nice about your favorite club. The Phillies have no hope of winning this series. The Braves are going to obliterate them. Bring out the brooms. Braves in 3.

Ben: A month ago, nobody thought these teams would be facing off in the NLDS. The Phillies season was an absolute roller coaster, but they eventually dragged themselves across the finish line, finishing with an 87-75 record, good enough for the last Wild Card spot in the NL. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves took advantage of a late Mets collapse, erasing a 10.5 game deficit at the very end of the season, punctuated by a 3-game sweep against them to clinch the NL East.

The Braves’ remarkable turnaround had many heroes, which is fitting given how deep and talented this Atlanta squad truly is. The reigning champions may have lost Freddie Freeman to free agency, but Austin Riley has filled the void in the middle of the lineup to the tune of 38 HRs and an incredible .878 OPS. In stark contrast, the Phillies are a team which has a few star bats (Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos) and not much else. Philadelphia’s pitching rotation (bullpen included) is held together with the baseball equivalent of duct tape and pipe cleaners. Meanwhile, Max Fried and the rest of the Braves pitchers have been dealing as of late, and they’ve established themselves as one of the most frightening rotations in all of baseball.

The Phillies turned heads by sweeping the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, but I don’t expect them to win another game this postseason. The Braves are built for October, and I think their title defense will start with a sweep. Braves in 3.

Which teams will face off in the Fall Classic this year?

Let us know in the comments below!

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Authors: Ryan Macdonald and Ben Pawlak

Published: 10/11/2022 at 12:07pm EST

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Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.

Sports Reference LLC. Baseball-Reference.com – Major League Statistics and Information. https://www.baseball-reference.com/. 27 January 2022.