In the snap of a finger, just 3 games remain in the 2022-23 NFL season.

The remaining 4 teams who are vying for a Super Bowl appearance this weekend have all been mainstays in the top 6 of The MVP Blog’s weekly NFL Power Rankings since Week 8. The 4 remaining QBs are 3 MVP candidates and… Brock Purdy? Yes, that’s correct. Mr. Irrelevant is going toe-to-toe with 3 of the best QBs this league has to offer. The crazy part is that he doesn’t seem to be overmatched. In 11 games, Purdy has thrown 16 TDs and only 4 INTs. If a big rookie mistake is coming, he certainly hasn’t shown any signs of it.

The AFC Championship Game is a rematch from last season. In 2022, Joe Burrow and the Bengals marched into Arrowhead Stadium and came out victorious by a score of 27-24 in overtime. Neither Burrow nor Mahomes played up to their lofty standards, and Mahomes in particular made mistakes which proved to be crucial as the Bengals came all the way back from a 21-10 halftime deficit. Will Sunday hold the same fate for the Chiefs, or will they prevail this time around?

The NFC Championship Game features the NFC’s top 2 teams from the regular season. The San Francisco 49ers are heading into Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in front of their raucous crowd. After the first 7 games of the season, the Niners were 3-4. Since then, they’ve won 12 straight games and find themselves just two wins away from football immortality. The Eagles, in contrast, looked like the best team in the NFL for a vast majority of the season. An injury to Jalen Hurts derailed things a bit towards the end, but a 38-7 drubbing of the Giants in the divisional round after their Wild Card bye week silenced all doubts.

Although we dearly wish our beloved teams, the Minnesota Vikings and the Buffalo Bills, were playing this weekend, we remain incredibly excited. For two teams, the season will continue, and the goal of the entire season – winning the Super Bowl – will be right there for the taking. For the other two teams, the season will come to a bitter end, and they will have the entire offseason to spend on ways to distract themselves from how close they were to reaching the mountaintop.

Let’s get right into our previews and predictions.

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NFC Championship Game

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -2.5)

Sunday, January 29th, 3pm EST on FOX

Ryan: Since the Niners acquired Christian McCaffery, I have viewed them as Super Bowl contenders. In fact, after the first 7 games of the season, I had the 3-4 49ers ahead of the 5-2 Dallas Cowboys in my power rankings. I took a ton of heat for it, but considering the fact that the 49ers just sent the Cowboys packing, it looks like myself – and the Niners, of course – got the last laugh. Once they added Christian McCaffery to the mix, it was only a matter of time before this team full of incredibly talented players turned up the heat and unleashed havoc on the rest of the NFL. McCaffery played sparingly in the Week 7 loss to the Chiefs, but ever since, he has become the go to guy for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, the Niners have not lost. The rest of the offense is a Murderer’s Row. Deebo Samuel. George Kittle. Brandon Aiyuk. A great offensive line led by Trent Williams, one of the greatest offensive tackles of all time. The league’s top defense. It’s no surprise that they have rattled off 12 consecutive wins.

The Philadelphia Eagles didn’t need a 12 game win streak to establish themselves as Super Bowl contenders. They’ve been atop the NFC standings the entire season, and Jalen Hurts is largely to thank for that. The 3rd year signal caller took a HUGE step forward in 2022. He improved his accuracy, threw for more yards, more TDs, and less INTs than in each of the two previous seasons. Isn’t it amazing what acquiring an elite WR (A.J. Brown) can do for a QB? This is exactly why I never judge a young QB until they have the opportunity to play with an elite receiver. QBs tend to take off when they get a true #1 guy. If the Giants get Daniel Jones an elite receiver, he will make a similar jump in 2023 to the one Hurts made in 2022. I’m not a Giants fan, but I am the proud co-leader of the Daniel Jones fan club (alongside Ben). Anyway, another key piece for Nick Sirianni’s offense is 4th year running back Miles Sanders. Sanders faced much scrutiny this past offseason after failing to find the endzone even once in 2021. In response, Sanders ran for nearly 1,300 yards and hit paydirt 11 times in 2022. He has cemented himself as the best rushing option of the Eagles’ crowded RB room. Much like the Niners, the Eagles also have a great offensive line and a very good defense, making this NFC Championship Game incredibly difficult to call, as the betting line also suggests (PHI -2.5).

The Niners are going to win Super Bowl 57. I said it after they traded for Christian McCaffrey. I said it after they fell to 3-4. I said it at the beginning of the playoffs. Why would I waver now? Philly is a very difficult place to play, which will make this game closer than it should be, but the superior talent of the Niners will be too much for the Eagles to overcome. Look for CMC to have his fingerprints all over this one. 150+ total yards and 2 scores. Niners win.

Score Prediction: Niners 27, Eagles 21

Ben: I’m predicting a low scoring affair in the NFC Championship Game, so for all of you betting aficionados, I’m unofficially advising you to take the under (the line is 45.5 points). Neither Hurts nor Purdy has played in a game of this magnitude in their NFL careers thus far. Young QBs, apart from the absolute best of the best (Brady, Manning, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, etc.) tend to struggle against top defenses in critical playoff games. Both the Niners and the Eagles have elite defenses, and they proved that in the divisional round. The Niners defense held the Cowboys offense – the very same offense which looked near perfect against the Bucs in the Wild Card round – to just 12 points and racked up 2 interceptions on the night. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense shut down the Giants, allowing just 7 points, registering 1 interception, and holding New York to just 227 total yards. This game will be close throughout, and I expect both the Eagles and Niners to have some missed opportunities on offense in the form of turnovers, miscues, and drives reverting to field goals rather than ending up in touchdowns.

When the going gets tough, I trust Jalen Hurts in crunch time, and I don’t trust Brock Purdy. Yes, Purdy has looked great thus far in his brief time as San Francisco’s starting QB. No, there isn’t any statistical evidence to suggest that Purdy is due for a rough outing. I still don’t trust him, especially in a hostile road environment. Fly Eagles Fly.

Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Niners 17

AFC Championship Game

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (KC -1.5)

Sunday, January 29th, 6:30pm EST on CBS

Ryan: They meet again.

Last year’s AFC Championship Game isn’t the Bengals’ only recent win against the Chiefs. They have beat them 3 times in the past 13 months, by a winning margin of 3 points in each game.

12/04/2022: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Cincinnati Bengals 27
1/30/2022: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Kansas City Chiefs 24 OT
1/02/2022: Kansas City Chiefs 31, Cincinnati Bengals 34

Every single one of these games has been a nail-biter, but the Bengals have prevailed each time. Why? Is Joe Burrow better than Patrick Mahomes? This isn’t a question I would have entertained coming into the 2022 season, and I don’t know how much merit it holds now, but I definitely think it can at least be debated at this point in time. I was watching ESPN while eating lunch earlier this week, and Max Kellerman went on a rant arguing for Joe Burrow to be recognized as the best player in football. I am here to inform you that, surprising as it may be, I did not hate his argument. In fact, Kellerman made some fantastic points. I am also here to inform you that it remains my firm belief that Justin Jefferson is the best player in all of football, but let’s not make this about my Vikes. In my opinion, Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in football. HOWEVER, if Joe Burrow beats him in yet another head-to-head matchup for the 4th consecutive occassion (including back-to-back AFC Championship Games), I do think we need to have a serious conversation about whether Joe Burrow is the new top dog in the NFL.

I am here to inform you of one more thing. We will be having that conversation, because the Cincinnati Bengals are going to win this football game and return to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are coming into this game a bit hobbled. Although Mahomes was not included in Friday’s injury report, it’s asinine to think he’ll be at 100%. He will play, but he will not be scrambling around and performing his typical wizardry out of the pocket like we have become accustomed to. Mahomes will be forced to operate as a pocket passer against an elite defensive unit. Travis Kelce was a surprise addition to the injury report on Friday. Although he is officially listed as questionable, let’s be honest, there is a better chance of me hitting a 21 team parlay tomorrow than of Kelce missing this football game. With Kansas City’s two best players at less than 100%, it is going to take an incredible outing from the Chiefs defense to slow down Burrow, Chase, Mixon, and Higgins. Either that, or Mahomes is going to have to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs on one leg.

These are two elite football teams, but one of them is the second hottest team in football, is healthier, and is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder. The worst thing that could’ve happened to the Buffalo Bills was the NFL handing them a home game last weekend. If that divisional round game was played at a neutral site, as it should’ve been, it would have been a completely different game and we may be talking about Josh Allen and the Bills right now. That was also the worst thing to happen to the Chiefs. The Bengals are (rightfully) pissed off and feel disrespected. They won the AFC last year, won 12 games this season, but still feel like they have something to prove because they still aren’t getting the credit they deserve. By the time the game kicked off in Buffalo last weekend, the Bengals were 6 point underdogs. They won by 17 points. I got in at Bengals +5.5, and I’ve never been more confident in a bet than I was last Sunday.

Niners vs Bengals was my Super Bowl pick going into the playoffs. Why would I change that now?

Score Prediction: Bengals 34, Chiefs 23

Ben: I refuse to bet against Patrick Mahomes. The guy is an absolute alien. He’s going to play this game against a red-hot Cincinatti defense on one leg like he’s Willis Reed in Game 7 of the 1970 NBA Finals. In the same way that Madison Square Garden served as the iconic venue for Reed’s superhuman performance, Arrowhead Stadium will serve as the iconic venue for whatever magic Mahomes conjures up on Sunday to lead the Chiefs to victory. Travis Kelce is having the best postseason of his Canton-bound career. Isiah Pacheco has been running through defenders all season, and his ability to gain yards after contact is a crucial element to Andy Reid’s offense, enabling them to chew up clock on long drives. As I’ve mentioned time and time again in my writing for these NFL Playoff Previews, having a reliable dual-threat offense to keep the opposing offense off the field is of paramount importance in the playoffs. Historical statistics back up that theory. The Buffalo Bills’ inability to generate anything resembling a fearsome rushing attack last Sunday backs up that theory.

Yes, the Bengals offense is a two-headed monster that is just as great, if not arguably better, that the Chiefs offense. Joe Burrow has a frightening war chest of weapons at his disposal in Zac Taylor’s offensive scheme. Joe Mixon has been dominant on the ground as of late, and Ja’Marr Chase continues to come through in key moments, particularly in the red zone. However, the Bengals’ Achilles heel is still yet to reveal itself. Against the Bills in the divisional round, Cincy feasted in the trenches like they were enjoying a 5-way at Skyline Chili. That will not happen in Kansas City. Unlike the Bills, the Chiefs have a superb offensive line, and their defensive line is operating at full strength behind the stellar play of Chris Jones and Frank Clark. The Bengals offensive line is still banged up and is still devoid of game changing talent, and it’s going to cost them on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are finally going to overcome their recent struggles against the Bengals and head back to the Super Bowl.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bengals 27.

Who’s going to the Super Bowl, and who’s going on vacation? Comment down below!

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Authors: Ben Pawlak and Ryan Macdonald

Published: 1/28/23 at 3:15pm EST

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Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.

Sports Reference LLC. Pro-Football-Reference.com – Pro Football Statistics and History. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. 22 January 2022.

StatMuse, https://www.statmuse.com/.