Fantasy football is much like the game of golf. You love it. You hate it. You get excited over a rushing touchdown like you get excited about a drive striped down the fairway. You get angry at a dropped pass like you get angry at a missed putt. After a rough season, you swear that you’ll never play fantasy football again just like you do the same with the game of golf after a bad round. And yet, here we are. Something keeps us coming back. Something gets us excited about another year of anguish and misery.

If you want to avoid that anguish and misery in 2023 and dominate your league, boy oh boy do we have a treat for you. In today’s installment of the MVP Blog, I am going to tell you about who to not leave your draft without, and who to avoid at all costs. I am going to discuss 3 quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers that I both love and hate for the 2023 fantasy season. I am going to talk about players who have great value, or who are valued far too highly. What about tight ends you ask? I will touch on them a little at the end, but let’s just say that it all starts and ends with one player at that position.

One quick note before we jump into things. Alot of people use average weekly score, not total fantasy points, to talk about and rank players. I am not one of those people. I will solely be using total fantasy score when I talk about where a player ranked last season. Availability is the best ability. At the end of the day, I would rather take the guy who is going to play every week and score 15 points than the guy who is going to score 20 but only play 10 games. Give me the guy who takes the field each and every week. Rankings from last season as well as draft positions this year are based on ESPN standard PPR scoring.

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Quarterbacks

I LOVE Russell Wilson.

To me, it’s unfathomable that Russell Wilson has an ADP of 143.7 and is QB17. The best ability is availability, and in his first 9 seasons in the NFL, Russell Wilson played every single game. In the past 2 seasons, he has missed a total of 5 games, but it’s not really a concerning trend in the least. Despite missing 2 games last season and being coached by the worst head coach in NFL history, Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson still managed a QB16 finish in total points among QBs.

From 2013-2020, Russell Wilson was a top-10 fantasy QB every single season. He finished outside of the top-10 in his rookie season, as well as the last two seasons. In 2021, however, he was a top-10 fantasy QB until he injured his finger, missed 3 games, and then fought threw pain the rest of the season. So basically, the only times in his NFL career that he wasn’t a top-10 fantasy QB were his rookie season and the season in which Nathaniel Hackett ruined a perfectly good offense.

Enter Sean Payton. Payton is widely regarded as one of the best play callers in the NFL, and he has plenty of youthful talent at his disposal. Jerry Jeudy is a guy who I think will have a breakout season (assuming with hamstring heals), Courtland Sutton had 1,100 yards in 2019, and Marvin Mims is a super talented rookie wideout coming off a tremendous college career at Oklahoma. Greg Dulcich had a solid rookie season last year, and we all know that Sean Payton loves to use his tight ends. Javonte Williams is also back from injury and will be slowly mixed back in. He is a true 3-down back that is going to erupt if he can stay healthy. Wilson has plenty of talent around him. Put all the jokes aside. Last year was a Nathaniel Hackett issue, not a Russell Wilson issue. This is still very much the same guy who threw for 4,200 yards and 40 TDs in 2020. Payton is going to let Russ cook, and Russ can definitely cook some gourmet meals. Russell Wilson will be a top-10 fantasy QB this year.

Two more Quarterbacks I love for the 2023 fantasy season:

• Daniel Jones (QB14): Jones improved drastically a year ago in the new Daboll-led Giants system. The improvements led to a new shiny $160 million contract. A year ago, Jones finished as QB9 in fantasy football. His weapons this season are improved, with the additions of Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, and rookie Jalin Hyatt. Jones’ legs are his biggest weapon, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t match his 700 yards and 7 TDs on the ground from a year ago.
• Geno Smith (QB15): With a talented receiving core highlighted by DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Geno Smith shocked the entire world by throwing for 4,200 yards and 30 scores a year ago. Those numbers were good enough for him to finish as the QB5 in fantasy football. And what did the Seahawks do this offseason? They gave their quarterback even more weapons by drafting talented offensive rookies in Jaxon Smith-Njiba and Zach Charbonnet. Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njiba could be the best WR trio in the NFL. Geno will finish well above where he is being drafted in most leagues.

I HATE Anthony Richardson.

With an ADP of 134.3, Anthony Richardson is currently the 16th QB being drafted, on average. Is Richardson an outstanding athlete? Certainly. Is Richardson oozing with potential? Sure. Does his running ability give him more upside from a fantasy perspective? 100%, but it also gives the #4 overall pick much higher potential for injury. Let me explain why taking Richardson over the likes of Wilson, Goff, Stafford, or even Purdy and Love is just asinine.

2022 was the first time that Anthony Richardson was QB1 in college. He led Florida to a mere 6-6 regular season record, before opting out of the bowl game in which his team got smacked by Oregon State. Opting out of bowl games is despicable in my opinion, but that’s for another time and another piece. Team accomplishments, however, do not factor into fantasy football whatsoever. Take a look at Justin Fields in 2022. He led his team to a 3-14 record but finished as QB6 in fantasy football thanks to his 1,100 rushing yards and 8 rushing scores. The emphasis on the dual threat QB and rushing upside like this is what have people so ever excited about Richardson. But let’s pump the brakes.

Richardson completed just 53% of his passes last season at Florida. He threw just 17 touchdowns and was picked off 9 times. He has not looked particularly sharp in limited preseason action. In the past 23 seasons, 66 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Of those 66 quarterbacks, only 5 have had top-10 fantasy seasons, and only 3 additional have finished in the top-20. More recently, in the past 3 seasons, only Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert have finished above QB18, which is right around where Richardson is being drafted. Herbert and Murray came into the NFL much more polished and league ready than Anthony Richardson is.

Richardson’s #1 receiving option is Michael Pittman. Outside of Pittman, he doesn’t have much receiving help. For a quarterback who already isn’t the best passer, having no receivers isn’t helpful. You are drafting Richardson ONLY because of his rushing upside. Teams are going to play zone coverage all day long with a QB spy, load the box and make Richardson beat them with his arm. Especially with Jonathan Taylor’s future in doubt, it’s just not worth the risk. If Taylor gets traded or just refuses to play, this is probably the worst offense in the NFL. Literally the only threat in this offense is Richardson running the ball. Defensive coordinators are paid too much money to not figure out how to slow that down, especially when he is a rookie and isn’t used to the speed of the NFL or the different defensive schemes that he will see.

Two more Quarterbacks I hate for the 2023 fantasy season:

• Lamar Jackson (QB4): The fact that Lamar is being drafted ahead of Joe Burrow is ridiculous. Lamar finished as the QB14 last season, in large part due to missing 5 games due to injury. The injuries are becoming a big concern with Jackson, as he has now missed 5 games in 2 consecutive years. His rushing attempts, yards, and TDs have all declined because of it. Lamar will never run for 1,000 yards again. He is being drafted this high because of the rushing upside, but the rushing upside just isn’t there anymore. All reports are that Baltimore is going to throw the ball more this year, which I am a fan of. I think Jackson is a very underrated passer and they need to limit his hits from running the ball. He will finish as a top-10 fantasy QB, but I believe he should be going as QB7. Take Burrow, Fields, and Lawrence ahead of him.
• Dak Prescott (QB11): Here is where I am at with Dak. He gets too much hate from the media and the NFL fans. They talk about him like he is an atrocious QB, which is certainly not the case. Cowboys fans talk about Dak like he is a top-5 QB, which is also certainly not the case. I think Dak is a very mediocre QB. 23 TDs to a whopping 15 interceptions in just 12 games a season ago offers very little to be excited about this season, especially in what may very well be a less talented offense as a whole. Guys like Tua, Jones, Smith, and Wilson are being taken after Dak. Please do yourself a favor and pass on Dak at that price.

Running Backs

I LOVE Jamaal Williams.

Jamaal Williams scored 17 rushing touchdowns last season after dethroning D’Andre Swift as RB1 in Detroit. In his first 5 seasons in the NFL prior to 2022, Williams scored a total of 13 touchdowns. Williams ended last season as the RB13 for fantasy football in PPR leagues (he only caught 12 passes all season) but was the RB7 in non-PPR leagues. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Williams is going to score 17 more touchdowns or that he is once again going to be a top-15 fantasy RB, because he’s just not going to do either of those things. Williams, however, will finish in the RB25 range and is currently being drafted as RB36 with an ADP of 117.9.

Williams is being drafted behind A.J. Dillion, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Isiah Pacheco, just to name a few. Dillon is the #2 back in what should be a pretty bad offense and is also behind a back who just isn’t all that injury prone. Swift is probably the RB2 in a crowded RB room on a team where the QB runs a lot and garners most of the short yardage carries. Dobbins is similar to Swift in that it is very much an RB by committee in Baltimore and the reports are that the Ravens will be throwing the ball more. Pacheco is in a pass-first offense with a crowded RB room, will never score many TDs, and has zero receiving upside as long as Jerrick McKinnon is around. Jamaal Williams should be drafted before all of these 4 at the bare minimum.

Let’s start with the most obvious reason to draft Williams. He is RB1 for the first 3 weeks of the season while Alvin Kamara serves his suspension. Williams will likely see 20-25 touches in each of the first 3 games of the season. And even once Kamara comes back, he has not had a great last 2 years. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in 2021 and just 4.0 ypc in 2022. I expect the Saints to cut back on his touches a bit and still give Williams 10-12 touches a game. And if Taysom Hill gets injured, I suspect that Williams would get the bulk of the short yardage and goal line carries. Williams will finish the season as a top-25 fantasy RB. If nothing else, just draft him because you are getting a must play RB1 for the first three weeks of the season late in your draft.

Two more Running Backs I love for the 2023 fantasy season:

• Nick Chubb (RB6): Outside of CMC and Ekeler, there isn’t a justifiable reason to select another RB over Nick Chubb. Chubb had a career year a season ago, racking up 1,500 yards and 12 scores on 302 carries. With Kareem Hunt out of the equation, I think Chubb is going to explode. He is going to be a three-down back, which will skyrocket his receiving numbers. Having a full season of Deshaun Watson at QB will also help. Teams have to respect the pass this season. Nick Chubb has never averaged under 5 yards per carry. This season won’t be any different, as he continues to run behind one of the best offensive lines in football. I think a statline of 1,800 rushing yards, 15 TDs, 400 yards receiving, and 3 TDs is well within reach. Nick Chubb will be the RB1 in fantasy football this year.
• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB14): Did you know that Lions running backs had more fantasy points in 2022 than any other team? Did you know that this year’s running backs are better than last year’s? Did you know that the Lions have a top-5 offensive line in football? Did you know that Jahmyr Gibbs is an elite receiving back? You want Jahmyr Gibbs on your team, especially in PPR leagues where he is going as RB14. His rushing upside is somewhat limited due to the addition of David Montgomery. His receiving upside, however, is through the roof. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him lineup in the slot, especially early in the season while Jameson Williams is still suspended. I think there is very much a world in which Gibbs catches 75-80 balls this season. He is going to be an elite PPR back.

I HATE Isiah Pacheco.

That actually hurt to type, because I love everything about the kid. I love his story. I love his refusal to back down when met with contact as a runner. But I just can’t get behind him being a top-30 fantasy running back. He is currently being drafted as RB26. I think he should be more in the RB35 range. I like several guys being taken behind him much more than I like Pacheco for fantasy purposes, including Javonte Williams, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, either of the Commanders running backs, and Jamaal Williams.

Pacheco is in an offense that thrives on the pass, and as long as the best quarterback in NFL history is the man under center for Kansas City, that isn’t going to change. Pacheco averaged just 12.6 carries per game last season in his 14 starts. Is that number going to increase this year? Probably not by much, if at all. Jerrick McKinnon is still around to steal some carries, but more importantly, he kills any receiving upside that Pacheco would otherwise have. Also still in the RB room is 2020 first-round draft pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is both more physically gifted and somehow younger than Isiah Pacheco.

I think it is absolutely insane to sit here and say CEH will not have a role on this team. CEH is going to get his opportunities, and when he does, I will not be at all surprised to see him excel. He is a man with a chip on his shoulder after having his starting job taken by a 7th round draft pick. He is a man playing for a contract. He is a man who still possesses the skills that made him a first-round pick in 2020. Edwards-Helaire doesn’t have much more to lose at this point, but he has a ton to prove. At some point this season, I think it is very possible that CEH reclaims the starting job and becomes a workhorse back for the Chiefs. He is far and away the most talented all-around back in that room.

Two more Running Backs I hate for the 2023 fantasy season:

• Jonathan Taylor (RB10): After an unbelievable 2021 season, Taylor was nothing but disappointing in 2022. Fast forward to the present, and he is starting the season on the PUP list after the Colts couldn’t find a fair trade for their star running back. By the time he is ready to return to the field (week 5 at the earliest), the Colts may very well be basically out of it already and will have no reason to rush him back. Jonathan Taylor will have zero reason and/or want to give it his all this season for a team that is going to be so putrid. Taylor will finish outside of the top-20 running backs.
• Dameon Pierce (RB16): This one is pretty simple. Horrible team. Bad offense. Rookie quarterback who is going to struggle. The Texans brought in Devin Singletary, who will absolutely take carries and receptions away from Pierce. Pierce finished as RB27 last year, and now we expect him to improve that dramatically with added competition? Yeah right. If you take Pierce before guys like Hall, Conner, and Mattison, you’re basically asking to lose your league.

Wide Receivers

I LOVE Calvin Ridley.

The last time that we saw Calvin Ridley play a full season of football, he caught 90 passes, racked up nearly 1,400 yards, and found the endzone 9 times. He finished as WR5 that year, despite being the only real pass catching threat (Julio Jones was injured or playing injured a majority of the season) for an old, declining QB. He gets hurt in 2021 and then has the gambling suspension for the entirety of the 2022 season, which I don’t agree with but that’s for another time, and everyone seems to forget just how good this guy is. He’s being drafted as WR17 right now!

Calvin Ridley is still only 28 years old. He is in the prime of his athletic career. He made a few catches this preseason that gave you a glimpse of the Calvin Ridley from 2020. He is playing with a rising star quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Last year with Lawrence as his QB, Christian Kirk finished as WR12. No offense to Kirk, but Ridley is a much better football player. Playing with other receiving threats like Kirk and Evan Engram will only benefit Calvin Ridley. This Jaguars offense is going to be really good, and Calvin Ridley is going to have a monster season.

Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams will be the top-6 wide receivers in fantasy this season, in that order in my opinion. But after those 6, when we start discussing guys like CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, and Garrett Wilson, how are people not including Calvin Ridley in that group?!? It’s downright insane. I am sorry, but there is absolutely no scenario in which Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, or Deebo Samuel outscore Ridley this season, assuming Ridley is healthy. After those top-6 wideouts that I mentioned above are taken, you should start giving immediate thought to drafting Calvin Ridley.

Two more Wide Receivers I love for the 2023 fantasy season:

• Tyler Lockett (WR29): When are people going to stop disrespecting Tyler Lockett, fantasy and otherwise? Lockett has finished as a top-15 WR for 5 consecutive years now after his WR13 finish in 2022. He doesn’t miss games. He’s an automatic 1,000+ yards. He scores 8-10 times a season. He is literally the most consistent wideout in the NFL and we are out here drafting guys like Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, and Christian Watson ahead of him. Get your head checked if you are doing that. I am not at all worried about Smith-Njiba cutting into his volume. There is a different excuse every year for why Lockett is going to regress, but it just never happens. You think that we all would have learned our lesson by now.
• Marvin Mims (IDEK): ESPN doesn’t have enough rounds or teams to show where Marvin Mims is being drafted, so he doesn’t even have an ADP. Mims is a guy who you are going to be able to get late, and he’s a guy who is going to win you your league. I already told you about why I think Russell Wilson will have a great year. I thought Jerry Jeudy was going to have a monster year, but the hamstring injury makes things more complicated. Who is the main beneficiary of that? No. Not Courtland Sutton, but Marvin Mims. Mims is going to be the WR2 to start the season in what should be a solid offense, and once he gets out there and starts making plays, the Broncos won’t be able to take him off.

I HATE Christian Watson.

A year ago, Christian Watson had a 4 week stretch that everyone is shockingly overreacting to. During those 4 weeks, Watson had 15 receptions, 313 yards, and 7 touchdowns. This was obviously not a sustainable rate. The 4 following weeks to end the season, Watson caught 16 passes for 210 yards and didn’t find the endzone at all. This year will surely be more like that last 4 weeks than the 4 weeks prior to that, but Watson is being drafted as WR21 right now. He is being selected ahead of receivers like Tyler Lockett, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and George Pickens. Please do yourself a favor and let your idiot league mates take Christian Watson at that price.

Let’s start with the most obvious reason to be pessimistic about Watson. He no longer has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time throwing the ball to him. Aaron Rodgers is now the starting quarterback of the New York Jets and Jordan Love takes over under center for the Green Bay Packers. I have no idea how good Jordan Love will be, but I can promise you that he will not be as good as Rodgers, not even 39-year-old Rodgers. The Packers have regressed at the quarterback position, which means that the wide receivers will naturally regress. It would also be amiss if I didn’t at least mention Romeo Doubs, another talented second year receiver who very well could overtake Watson as the WR1 in this offense.

Lastly, this Packers offense will almost certainly be a run first unit. With a first year starting quarterback and inexperienced pass catchers, the tandem of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should see a heavy workload. When you draft Watson that high based off of an unsustainable 4 week stretch and he stinks, just remember this warning.

Two more Wide Receivers I hate for the 2023 fantasy season:

• Tee Higgins (WR13): I’m a huge Tee Higgins fan, don’t get me wrong, but his upside is limited in this Bengals offense. He doesn’t get enough targets or catches to warrant a WR13 selection. He will get you 1,000-1,200 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, but as long as Ja’Marr Chase is lining up on the other side of the field, I just really don’t see Higgins exploding. Chris Olave, Calvin Ridley, DeVonta Smith, and Amari Cooper are all being selected behind Higgins, but will all have a better fantasy season, in my opinion. Tyler Lockett will put up similar numbers to Higgins, but he is being selected 16 wide receivers after Higgins.
• Deebo Samuel (WR16): This is not 2021 Deebo Samuel who took the NFL by storm amidst one of the most unique seasons in recent memory. This is not 2022 Deebo Samuel who was as disappointing as could be. 2023 Deebo Samuel is somewhere in between, but all signs point to this version of Deebo being much closer to 2022 Deebo than 2021. He isn’t going to have as much rushing upside as long as Christian McCaffrey is healthy. His receiving numbers took a big hit last year with the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk. Kyle Shannahan will find ways to get him the ball, but there are just way too many playmakers in this 49ers offense to warrant Deebo being selected ahead of Ridley, Cooper, and Keenan Allen.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce. Does anything more need to be said? Travis Kelce is worth every bit of a top-8 pick, as he gives you such a huge positional advantage. Kelce has finished as TE1 in 5 out of the last 7 seasons. In the two seasons where he didn’t finish first, he finished second. Being the #1 option for the best quarterback in the game makes Kelce just as valuable as most of the top receivers. There is depth at receiver, however. At tight end, it’s hard to find consistent production.

Mark Andrews is the only other tight end in the league capable of dethroning Kelce as the top fantasy tight end. All the reports out of Baltimore are that the Ravens are going to throw the ball a lot more this year. This makes Andrews even more enticing, and he’s well worth an end of the second round, early third round pick.

After those two, it really drops off. Guys like Hockenson, Kittle, Waller, and Pitts are very good, but each of them comes with some risk and are being drafted in places where you are probably better off taking receivers and running backs. If you don’t get Kelce or Andrews, I would wait until later in the draft to snag your tight end.

And I am not talking about waiting for Goedert, Njoku, Engram, or Freiermuth. Wait even longer. You’ll get better depth at other positions and really won’t be losing all that much at tight end. Guys like Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Dalton Kincaid, and Sam LaPorta are all guys who you can get late that I think will produce similar numbers to those guys you would be spending far too much on.

If you are in larger leagues, look at guys like Luke Musgrave, Irv Smith Jr., Jake Ferguson, and Michael Mayer. You can get these guys in the last rounds of most drafts, but I really think that all 4 will make solid contributions this season.

If Kelce or Andrews isn’t available, be patient. Do not reach for a guy who is going to get 800 yards and 6 scores when you can get 600 yards and 4 scores 12 rounds later.

Who are your favorite fantasy football targets this year?

Who are your least favorite?

Let us know in the comments below!

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Author: Ryan Macdonald

Published: 8/31/2023 at 4:00pm EST