The NFL is finally back, and we at the MVP Blog can’t hide our excitement. So, feel free to kick your feet up, grab a drink, and read our analysis and predictions for all 32 teams for the 2023 season.

Ryan will break down the AFC, while Ben will dissect the NFC.

We’ll keep things brief, since we know your time is valuable.

Enjoy the read, and make sure to bookmark this article so that you can laugh at us when our predictions are horribly wrong.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Predicted Record: 12-5
X-Factor: Von Miller’s health
Sleeper: Dalton Kincaid

Even with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers into the AFC East, this division still runs through Buffalo. A lot of people are fading the Bills hard, I mean Vegas has the Bills over/under win total set at just 10.5… yikes. I’m warning you, fading Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will come back to bite you in the butt.

New York Jets
Predicted Record: 11-6
X-Factor: Pass catchers (besides Garrett Wilson)
Sleeper: Tyler Conklin

Sauce Gardner leads what may very well be the top defensive unit in the NFL. With that defense, one of the greatest to ever do it at QB, two dynamic running backs, and a young, up and coming receiver out wide, the sky is the limit for the Jets. The one and only question mark with this team is pass catchers not named Garrett Wilson.

Miami Dolphins
Predicted Record: 10-7
X-Factor: Offensive Line
Sleeper: De’Von Achane

Tua Tagovailoa has the talent and weapons to lead this team to where they want to be, but the downfall of this offense will once again be the offensive line failing to keep Tua upright. On the defensive side of the ball, I really think that Miami has a chance to be one of the top units in the league, especially in the secondary, where Jalen Ramsey (once he gets healthy) will join Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland.

New England Patriots
Predicted Record: 6-11
X-Factor: Juju Smith-Schuster
Sleeper: Marte Mapu

In a loaded AFC East, I just don’t see any way in which the New England Patriots contend for a playoff spot, even while boasting a very good defense. This division has some of the best defenses in the league, which is bad news for a lackluster Patriots offense led by an okay quarterback with very little pass catching help.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted Record: 12-5
X-Factor: Joe Burrow’s calf
Sleeper: Irv Smith Jr.

This is the same old Bengals squad that we have become accustomed to: Solid defense that will make the big play when they need to and a high-flying offense that is must watch TV. The Bengals season, however, all depends on Joe Burrow’s calf and whether or not it will be a lingering issue.

Baltimore Ravens
Predicted Record: 11-6
X-Factor: Lamar Jackson’s health
Sleeper: Rashod Bateman

With Mark Andrews leading the pass catchers and the additions of Zay Flowers and OBJ, everyone has seemingly forgotten about Rashod Bateman, a 2021 first round draft pick who has struggled with injuries but is probably the top receiver on this team. I think this offense will air it out more and will be improved, but I am not quite convinced enough to jump aboard the Lamar Jackson MVP hype train.

Cleveland Browns
Predicted Record: 9-8
X-Factor: Deshaun Watson
Sleeper: Cedric Tillman

Nick Chubb is going to put up some gaudy numbers this season, especially with no Kareem Hunt in town. If Deshaun Watson can return to his Houston Texans form, this team should absolutely contend for a playoff spot, but after a very disappointing 6-game performance to end the 2022 season, I don’t think Watson getting back to where he once was is a lock.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Record: 7-10
X-Factor: Kenny Pickett
Sleeper: Jaylen Warren

The Steelers are very similar to the Patriots in my opinion: Very good defensive teams with young mediocre quarterbacks playing in a division where it’s going to be tough to compete. I am a believer in George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, but I am not a believer in Kenny Pickett being a franchise QB. Prove me wrong, Kenny.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Record: 11-6
X-Factor: Calvin Ridley
Sleeper: Tank Bigsby

This team is young, fun, and improving rapidly under accomplished head coach Doug Pederson. The Trevor Lawrence to Calvin Ridley connection in 2023 is going to be one of the top QB/WR connections in the NFL. There are 0 threats to the Jaguars in the putrid AFC South.

Tennessee Titans
Predicted Record: 7-10
X-Factor: DeAndre Hopkins
Sleeper: Tyjae Spears

Outside of Titans fans, I don’t think anyone ever sits down on their couch on a Sunday afternoon and says, “I am so excited to watch the Tennessee Titans play football today!”. Derrick Henry is a human highlight reel, but the rest of the team is so dang boring and stale.

Houston Texans
Predicted Record: 5-12
X-Factor: Will Anderson Jr.
Sleeper: John Metchie III

After battling and defeating Leukemia during the 2022 NFL season, John Metchie, the former Alabama standout receiver who would’ve been a first-round pick if not for an ACL tear late in the 2021 CFB season, is finally set to make his NFL debut. The MVP Blog would like to extend our congratulations to John Metchie on beating cancer! Joining Metchie in Houston is his former college teammate, Will Anderson Jr., who has a chance to become one of the most disruptive pass rushers this game has to offer.

Indianapolis Colts
Predicted Record: 3-14
X-Factor: Solving the Jonathan Taylor situation
Sleeper: Evan Hull

Anthony Richardson is an electric athlete who is very raw at the quarterback position and could use some time to develop. With no Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman is the only proven offensive weapon that the rookie Richardson – who is being thrown into the fire as the starting QB to begin the new season – has at his disposal… what could possibly go wrong?

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
Predicted Record: 13-4
X-Factors: Travis Kelce’s knee and Chris Jones’ holdout
Sleeper: Skyy Moore

Patrick Mahomes is unbelievably, ridiculously, absurdly, extraordinarily, breathtakingly good at football, but is Travis Kelce’s knee okay? Kelce is really the only proven NFL weapon on this offense, but Mahomes will still find a way to throw for 5,000 yards, 40 touchdowns, and win his third MVP.

Denver Broncos
Predicted Record: 10-7
X-Factor: Jerry Jeudy’s health
Sleeper: Marvin Mims Jr.

With Nathaniel Hackett out and Sean Payton in, I fully expect both the Broncos and Russell Wilson to have a nice bounce back year after a very disappointing 2022 season. Once Jerry Jeudy’s hamstring heals up, he will become a top-10 wideout in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers
Predicted Record: 9-8
X-Factor: Justin Herbert
Sleeper: Quentin Johnston

After a relatively underwhelming 2022 season, can Justin Herbert go from being a great QB to joining the class of elite? The answer to that question will dictate the Chargers success, but with a talented trio of receivers and one of the best running backs in the game, the only thing that can hold Herbert back at this point is himself.

Las Vegas Raiders
Predicted Record: 5-12
X-Factor: Having fun?
Sleeper: Zamir White

I’ll be blunt: There is no hope for the 2023 Las Vegas Raiders or for the future of this organization as a whole. They need a complete rebuild. I feel for guys like Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby who are wasting some of the best years of their illustrious careers stuck in this mess.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles
Predicted Record: 14-3
X-Factor: D’Andre Swift
Sleeper: Jordan Davis

The Eagles are the league’s best in the trenches, allowing their litany of ultra-talented skill players to ball out week after week. Philly will cruise to another NFC East crown, but they won’t be satisfied unless they can capture the Lombardi Trophy in February.

New York Giants
Predicted Record: 11-6
X-Factor: Kayvon Thibodeaux
Sleeper: Sterling Shepard

Despite playing in a massive market and beating the Vikings in the Wild Card last season, I still think the Giants are being slept on. They’ve improved in the right places this offseason, they boast one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL, and if Saquon and Kayvon can stay healthy, they can cause significant problems for any team in the league on any given Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys
Predicted Record: 10-7
X-Factor: Tony Pollard
Sleeper: Jake Ferguson

As has been the case with them in recent years, the Cowboys boast incredibly talented individual players, but are overrated as a group. Subpar coaching will hold this team back once again, and in my opinion, they are in danger of missing the playoffs if they can’t beat out the Giants for the 2nd place spot in their hotly contested division.

Washington Commanders
Predicted Record: 6-11
X-Factor: Sam Howell
Sleeper: Brian Robinson Jr.

Finally free from the clutches of Dan Snyder’s filthy hands, the Commanders are still going to be a mediocre football team. Sam Howell’s ceiling is slightly above average at best, and in such a tough division, that won’t cut it even if the relatively okay roster around him overperforms this season.

NFC North

Detroit Lions
Predicted Record: 11-6
X-Factor: Jahmyr Gibbs
Sleeper: Jack Campbell

Last season, head coach Dan Campbell and his scrappy group of knee-biting misfits won the hearts of football fans all across the country. This season, many are expecting big things from them thanks to a brand-new running back core and a much-improved defense. While the Lions of old may have crumbled under the weight of these lofty expectations, these Lions are ready for the challenge to claim the top spot in a weakened NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings
Predicted Record: 10-7
X-Factor: Danielle Hunter
Sleeper: T.J. Hockenson

The offense should still be really good, and the defense should still be really bad, and the coaching should still be pretty good, and they’ll still have a pretty good record, and nobody will be surprised when they’re dumped out of the playoffs in the Wild Card round.

For more great commentary on this remarkably consistent small-market NFL franchise, go watch Dorktown’s “The History of the Minnesota Vikings”, the latest wacky sports-franchise-centric YouTube docuseries from the brilliant minds of Jon Bois, Alex Rubenstein, and rest of the amazing team at Secret Base. You won’t regret it.

Green Bay Packers
Predicted Record: 8-9
X-Factor: Jordan Love
Sleepers: Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft

Jordan Love has the tools to be a pretty solid QB right out of the gate, and while his receiving corps isn’t spectacular, the rest of the offense should be decent enough to help him do just that. The defense and coaching staff are good enough to guide the Packers to a relatively impressive season, but as with any team in transition, they’re not going to make the playoffs and they’re not going to be very consistent.

Chicago Bears
Predicted Record: 5-12
X-Factor: Justin Fields
Sleeper: Robert Tonyan

It isn’t entirely his fault, but Justin Fields is a bad quarterback. I don’t trust the coaches in Chicago or the rest of the Bears roster to pick up the slack for his shortcomings as a passer, so it’ll be another dreary season in the Windy City.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Predicted Record: 9-8
X-Factor: Jessie Bates
Sleeper: Tyler Allgeier

The Atlanta Falcons are going to have an average or above average offense spearheaded by one of the most talented and multi-faceted rushing attacks in the NFL. Led by underrated 2nd year head coach Arthur Smith and 1st year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, the Falcons will also make great strides on the other side of the football to win the NFC South for the first time since 2016.

New Orleans Saints
Predicted Record: 8-9
X-Factor: The entire offensive line
Sleeper: Juwan Johnson

Derek Carr can win you a handful of regular season games in convincing fashion, and then he will promptly turn into a potato when the games have playoff implications down the stretch. The Saints will get close to winning their extremely weak division, but with an aging defense and a questionable offensive line, they’ll come up just short.

Carolina Panthers
Predicted Record: 4-13
X-Factor: Adam Thielen
Sleeper: Hayden Hurst

The Panthers are in the first year of a complete rebuild, and with that in context, I think they’ll have a productive year. Bryce Young won’t always have it easy, but he’ll eventually settle into his position as the new franchise centerpiece while new head coach Frank Reich slowly taps into the team’s potential on both sides of the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predicted Record: 3-14
X-Factor: Kyle Trask
Sleeper: Rachaad White

Ever since he played through that shoulder injury in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield has been cooked. The Bucs are going to end up handing the keys to Kyle Trask, which means the injury-riddled roster in Tampa will have to deal with a lot of losing this season, as most fans are expecting.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers
Predicted Record: 13-4
X-Factor: Nick Bosa
Sleeper: Kyle Juszczyk

Brock Purdy may be small in stature (and talent relative to the rest of the league’s signal-callers) but his offensive output will be massive thanks to the weapons at his disposal. I’d argue that the Niners boast the second most complete roster in football behind the Eagles, and they’ll be good enough (in the regular season) to win the NFC South for the second straight season.

Seattle Seahawks
Predicted Record: 11-6
X-Factor: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Sleeper: Zach Charbonnet

The Pete Carroll/Geno Smith renaissance will be televised. The roster boasts a great blend of talented youngsters, established players entering their prime, and veterans ready to help take this group to the next level after an unexpected Wild Card appearance last season.

Los Angeles Rams
Predicted Record: 6-11
X-Factor: Matthew Stafford
Sleeper: Ernest Jones

It’s been just over one year since the Rams won the Super Bowl at SoFi, but it feels like it’s been much longer. The roster is stale, aging, and injury-riddled, and no amount of Sean McVay wizardry can save them from heavy regression in a division with two very good teams.

Arizona Cardinals
Predicted Record: 2-15
X-Factor: Josh Dobbs (or Clayton Tune?)
Sleeper: James Connor

This team is doomed. They might go 0-17, but I’ll be nice and throw them a couple of predicted wins out of pity, even though I don’t think Kyler Murray will return this season.

AFC Playoff Picture
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. New York Jets
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Denver Broncos

NFC Playoff Picture
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. New York Giants
7. Minnesota Vikings

Which team will hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy at season’s end? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!

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Author: Ryan Macdonald and Ben Pawlak

Published: 9/7/23 at 4:30pm EST

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Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.