Welcome back to the MVP Blog. Did you miss us? We know we’ve been away for a while, but unlike your favorite sports team, we always come back when you need us most.
The NFL Playoffs kick off this afternoon with a 6 game slate of Wild Card matchups, so we’ve decided to return to our bread and butter; previewing and predicting each and every game.
Let’s cut to the chase: We can’t wait for this weekend, and we hope that you feel the same way. If you are enjoying the content, please make sure to subscribe to The MVP Blog and follow us on Twitter and Instagram. So without any further ado, let’s dive right into the upcoming action!
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (CLE -2.5)
Saturday, January 13th, 4:30pm EST on NBC
Ryan: Joe Flacco versus CJ Stroud. If you picked this as a postseason QB matchup 4 months ago, you should go buy a lottery ticket or liquidate your bank account for a gambling spree in Vegas.
Let’s start with the Browns. Nick Chubb suffered a brutal knee injury in Week 2. Jerome Ford replaced him and did a stellar job. Deshaun Watson suffered a season ending injury 2 months ago. In stepped journeyman Joe Flacco (once it was clear that rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson and XFL legend PJ Walker weren’t the answer under center), and all he has done is win while putting up gawdy numbers. In 5 games with Joe under center, the Browns went 4-1 and Flacco completed 60% of his passes for about 320 yards per game, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Sure, the interception number is high, but that’s what you get with him. High risk, high reward, old school gunslinger football. The Browns have also lost other key offensive players, but again, the replacements came in and did an outstanding job. The next man up mentality for Kevin Stefanski’s squad on the offensive side of the ball this season has been strong. Defensively speaking, this team balled out this year. They are as good as any team in the league on that side of the ball, with DPOY candidate Myles Garrett leading the charge.
For the Texans, the conversations start and end with Mr. Stroud. I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I said all along that the Panthers should take Stroud at 1, and I have the text receipts to prove it. Stroud has completely transformed this organization. You couldn’t have possibly given first year head coach DeMeco Ryans a better gift, which isn’t meant to undermine what Ryans has done. He deserves a ton of credit, but the coach’s job is a million times easier when you have a talent like Stroud as your signal caller. This turnaround is because of Stroud. You need a good QB to win in this league. Period. Stroud had one of the best rookie QB seasons in recent memory, more than good enough to earn the OROY award. In 15 games this season, Stroud completed 64% of his passes, threw for 274 yards per game, had 23 TDs and threw only 5 interceptions, 3 of which came in one game (a game that the Texans won anyways). That’s a great season for any QB. For a rookie, it is unbelievable. Tank Dell (before being lost for the season to a nasty injury) and Nico Collins have been the top targets for Stroud, while Devin Singletary has been a steady hand in the backfield.
Intuition says the Browns win this game. They have the much more experienced QB. Hell, it’s a Super Bowl MVP versus a rookie. They have the better defense. Even though the Browns are on the road, they are rightfully favored in this game. Stroud may have been incredible this season, but the postseason is an entirely different animal. But I don’t care. The Texans are going to win this football game. Stroud isn’t an ordinary rookie. He is going to ball out on the biggest stage. NRG Stadium will be a madhouse. The defense will force a few timely turnovers. Stroud leads a game winning drive. If you can’t tell, I have bought all the CJ Stroud stock in the world. Go ball out, young fella!
Score Prediction: Texans 28, Browns 27
Ben: Last season, the Texans were 3-13-1, and before this season began, the bookmakers set the team’s win total at 6.5. In the 2023 NFL Draft, Houston selected quarterback C.J. Stroud with the 2nd overall pick and traded up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the 3rd overall pick. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has entrusted these two rookies to be the heart and soul of the team on their respective sides of the ball, and to say its working would be selling the Texans short. There’s really no precedent for a team winning its division with such a young team led by a rookie quarterback. It only took a few games for fans to realize that Stroud is the league’s next great star quarterback, and the rest of the team followed his lead. Their reward for an impressive 10-7 finish is the AFC South division title and playing host for a Wild Card playoff game (in what should be the first of many for the Ryans/Stroud Texans).
Stroud won’t have it easy against Kevin Stefanski’s vaunted Browns defense, led by Myles Garrett, a future Hall of Famer who is one of the best pass rushers to ever play and the likely pick for the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Cleveland’s defensive unit led the league in total yards against per game (270.2) and pass yards against per game (164.7) during the regular season. Their fearsome pass defense is spearheaded by their cornerback tandem (Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II) and linebacker tandem (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Sione Takitaki). Offensively, the Browns are set to become the first team in NFL history to play a playoff game without their Week 1 starting QB (Deshaun “Groper Cleveland” Watson), RB (Nick Chubb), LT (Jack Conklin), and RT (Jedrick Willis). Thanks to the outstanding play of star wideout Amari Cooper, the season-long breakout of backup tailback Jerome Ford, the career-best performances of tight end David Njoku, and the career renaissance of 38-year-old cult hero Joe Flacco under center, the Browns offense has been rolling as of late.
Wild Card Weekend will be kicked off with a tantalizing matchup between the top two Coach of the Year candidates (Ryans and Stefanski) whose teams have each defied the odds in their own unique ways. The Browns have elevated their play all season in spite of a never-ending supply of injury woes, while the Texans have seen returns on the potential of their exciting young core way ahead of schedule.
I think this will be a very close game from start to finish, but I think the Browns defense will ultimately be too tough for the inexperienced Texans squad to conquer on the day.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Texans 20
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (KC -4.5)
Saturday, January 13th, 8:00pm EST on Peacock
Ryan: This game is going to be the least exciting of all the wild card games this weekend, in my opinion. The real temp (including wind chill) at kickoff is expected to be around -23, and it’s only going to get colder as the night goes on. I was out at recess with my kids yesterday for about 20 minutes when the wind chill was -5. I was running around most of the time with a coat, a hat, and gloves, but it didn’t matter. It was cold. Like, really, really cold. It’s going to be 20 degrees colder tonight in Arrowhead. And the players won’t be wearing coats and gloves. You might say “Oh, Ryan. It’s football in January. It’s going to be cold. They are used to it!” but you are wrong. I have lived in Minnesota for 26 of my 27 years on this planet. The other year was in Massachusetts. I have been in the cold my entire life. You NEVER get used to temperatures *that* cold. Temperature in the 10s and 20s are nothing. People are outside living their normal lives. You’ll see some people just wearing sweatshirts. It’s normal. -20 to -30 is not normal. Schools shut down when it gets that cold. IN MINNESOTA. -20 to -30 wind chills make it unsafe to even be outside.
These guys aren’t out there for just a 20-minute recess. They are out there for a 3-hour football game. Tua and Mahomes won’t be able to feel their hands. How they are going to throw the football (which will be hard as a rock) with any precision is beyond me. This is going to be a good old-fashioned ground and pound football game. Let’s get nasty. Isiah Pacheco is licking his chops. He was BORN for this type of football game. Give that man 30 carries, minimum.
On the other side, Miami runs on speed. Let’s take passing out of the equation, because again, these guys won’t be able to feel their hands after the first two plays of each drive. Achane, the outstanding rookie, and Mostert, who may or may not play, are two of the fastest backs in the league. But the cold stifles speed. It’s the great equalizer. In a sunny day in Miami, give me Achane and Mostert over Pacheco every day of the week and twice on Sundays. In -23 degrees in January at Arrowhead, give me Pacheco every day of the week and 34 times on Saturday. 34 times on Saturday because that’s how many carries Pacheco should get tonight. Feed him.
Do I think the Chiefs can make another Super Bowl run? No. Patty Mahomes and Travis Kelce have been so pedestrian this season, and there just isn’t enough talent on the outside to close that gap. Could they turn it on? Sure, they’re the defending Super Bowl Champs, after all, but I am not counting on it.
I think the Chiefs win this game, but I am rooting for the Dolphins simply because Mike McDaniel is absolutely hysterical, and his postgame presser would be legendary.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Dolphins 13
Ben: If you had told me at the midpoint of this season that we would be treated to a Chiefs vs Dolphins matchup in the Wild Card round at Arrowhead, I would have been excited to see a high-flying shootout between two of the best offenses the league has ever seen. However, given the relevant circumstances, this is one of the games I’m least excited to watch this weekend.
The Chiefs’ recent offensive struggles have been well documented, particularly in the second half of the season. The play of Mahomes and Kelce has noticeably regressed, and the duo look less explosive than ever before. Part of that concerning development can be attributed to the fact that Kansas City’s receiving core can’t catch a cold (here’s looking at you, Kadarius Toney and Marques Valdes-Scantling), but as a whole, Andy Reid’s offense has been very sloppy and undisciplined. The ineptitude on that side of the football cost them dearly in close losses against the Packers, the Bills, and the Raiders. Thankfully, their schedule down the home stretch was a cakewalk, and the rest of the AFC West was a complete joke this season. Kansas City’s defense, meanwhile, has been better than ever in the Reid/Mahomes era. A resurgent Chris Jones (10.5 sacks for an interior defensive lineman is absurd), rising stars in Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis, and key contributions from L’Jarius Sneed, Justin Reid, and Drue Tranquill has turned a once-underrated defensive unit into one of the league’s best.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have been in freefall as of late. With 5 games left to play, Mike McDaniel’s squad held a 3.5 game lead in the AFC East. They looked poised to snap the Buffalo Bills’ streak of 3 straight division titles, but they collapsed at the worst possible time. They lost to the Titans in a shock road loss on Monday Night Football, and while they bounced back with a comfortable win against the New York Jets and a close escape from the jaws of the (equally fraudulent) Dallas Cowboys, they closed out their season in disastrous fashion. All Miami needed was a single victory from their final 2 games to clinch an AFC East crown, but they were throttled in a 37 point loss in Baltimore, and against the Bills at home to close out the season, they laid a massive egg, allowing a sloppy first half performance from their bitter rivals to go unpunished, failed to control the game at home, and couldn’t get their offense out of first gear, winding up with a 21-14 loss. Despite the MVP-caliber play of receiver Tyreek Hill, a supposedly revolutionary offensive coaching scheme from the Shanahan coaching tree, a viciously quick running back tandem of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, the Dolphins still couldn’t get over the hump in the regular season to secure a home playoff game. Furthermore, they officially concluded their season with just 1 win against a team with a win percentage better than .500, which is another damning indictment of this team. With a boatload of recent season-ending injuries, particularly on defense to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, it’s hard to have much confidence in the Dolphins.
The Miami Dolphins are set to play the defending Super Bowl Champions, on the road, in the freezing cold. The Ravens and Bills ripped out the team’s soul at the tail end of the regular season, and the Kansas City Chiefs, even with their many warts, will finish the job and bury them for good in the playoffs.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Dolphins 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (BUF -10.0)
Sunday, January 14th, 1:00pm EST on CBS
Ryan: Ben is the Bills guy. I’m sure he will have plenty to say about this one, so I will keep mine short and sweet. Ben has been traumatized by years of heartbreak and will tell you why this game will be close as a result. I am not a traumatized Bills fan. I am a football fan with no rooting interest outside of wishing Ben’s team well. So here are my simple thoughts on this one, which by the way, will feature plenty of snow. Would it really be a Bills home playoff game without a blizzard?
- Josh Allen is really good at football. The national media can talk all they want about his turnovers, but Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he has been for almost 4 years now. Nobody can dispute that.
- TJ Watt is out due to injury.
- The spread is not nearly big enough.
- The Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph in a playoff game. Lol.
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Steelers 7
Ben: Even after 17 regular season games, nobody knows who the Buffalo Bills are, both as a whole and on an individual level. The Bills are Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. They’re the team who played down to their competition and threw away countless opportunities to win against Zach Wilson’s Jets, Mac Jones’ Patriots, and Russell Wilson’s Broncos. They’re also the hottest team in the NFL, ripping off consecutive wins their final 5 games of the season (despite the league’s toughest schedule during that period!) to catapult them from 11th seed in the AFC at 6-6 to their 4th straight AFC East title and the 2nd seed in the AFC at 11-6. They’re the team which still willingly employs Sean McDermott, the architect of classic collapses such as the “13 seconds” fiasco, the guy who takes team-building inspiration from the 9/11 terrorists and uses the same buzz words in his press conferences to point the finger at anyone but himself when things go wrong. They’re the team which has statistically regressed a bit offensively since changing the offensive coordinator from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady, but have looked and felt much better on that side of the ball ever since that personnel decision. They’re the team with the franchise quarterback who is due for at least one brain-numbing interception each game but makes up for it every time with a healthy dose of both bailout hero ball and composed clutch drives to win his team games. Live by Josh Allen, die by Josh Allen. At this point, it seems the Bills and their fans have realized that the only way for their ever-turbulent flight to land safely at their desired destination (a Super Bowl victory) is to put their unwavering trust in their eccentric captain.
The Steelers remain inevitable, yet frustrating. Mike Tomlin kept his streak intact, leading Pittsburgh to their 17th straight season without a losing record. However, the team’s 10-7 record doesn’t exactly reflect how their season has felt for the Steeler faithful. They’ve gone through 3 QB’s and fired their much-maligned offensive coordinator Matt Canada (an extremely uncharacteristic move for their franchise), yet their offense remains fairly stagnant. Any hope that Kenny Pickett can be the team’s man under center for the foreseeable future seems lost. Mitch Trubisky wasn’t the answer, so Tomlin turned to Mason Rudolph, and surprisingly, he’s played quite well so far. The talented wide receiver duo of George Pickens and Diontae Johnson expressed their displeasure at their lack of involvement in the offense earlier on in the season, but they’ve both seen a noticeable uptick in production with Rudolph throwing the ball. Najee Harris has been better lately too, and while he’s not exactly a top tier running back in the league as many hoped he’d be, he provides a pretty good one-two punch with speedy change-of-pace back Jaylen Warren. The Steelers are still hanging their hat on their tried-and-true defense led by veteran stars, particularly Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Forcing turnovers at key moments has been their route to success all season long, something they’ll definitely need to do in Buffalo if they are to win this game.
Key injuries to stars have damaged both defenses, as the Bills have been without Matt Milano and Tre White for most of this season, while TJ Watt was unfortunately injured in the Steelers’ regular season finale and will miss this Wild Card bout. This game is going to be a lot closer than the spread suggests, and I foresee a relatively low scoring affair where rushing efficiency, clock management, special teams, and field position are of paramount importance. With low temps, heavy wind, and possible snow in the forecast (it is a January football game at an outdoor stadium in Buffalo, after all), Josh Allen and his dynamic backfield sidekick James Cook will be given license to run free behind their surprisingly sturdy offensive line. I don’t expect the Steelers to have the same level of success with their relatively weak personnel in the trenches and the backfield.
Score Prediction: Bills 17, Steelers 10
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7.5)
Sunday, January 14th, 4:30pm EST on FOX
Ryan: I don’t know how the Packers keep doing this. They keep digging themselves these big holes early in the season, only to resurrect themselves and squeak into the playoffs. This season was very reminiscent of the famous “R-E-L-A-X” season. The Packers were once again dead. Following a week 10 loss to the Steelers, the Packers found themselves at 3-6, and Jordan Love was struggling. The first-year starter was completing just 59% of his passes and had thrown 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but the first two weeks were 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The following 7 games were just 8 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. For a time, it sure looked like Jordan Love was not the answer.
And then a switch was flipped. The Packers went 6-2 down the stretch, and during that time, Love completed 70% of his passes, threw 18 touchdowns, and was only intercepted once. With Love humming, Jayden Reed making plays out wide, and Aaron Jones finally healthy and running on all cylinders, the Packers can absolutely make a run in this postseason. But to do that, they will first have to get through the Dallas Cowboys, a team who for much of this year has looked like the team to beat in the NFC.
The Cowboys have been downright dominant at home this season. They are a perfect 8-0 at the Jerry Dome. They have outscored the opposition 299-127 in those 8 games. Those 299 points scored in just their 8 homes games are more points than the Jets, Giants, Panthers, and Patriots scored in their entire 17 game season. Dak Prescott has been extraordinary and CeeDee Lamb has finally taken the leap from star to elite. Lamb’s breakout campaign helped ease the disappointing play of running back Tony Pollard. To go along with this air raid offense, the Cowboys also feature one of the top defensive units in the NFL, led by superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons. I get that the Cowboys’ recent history in the postseason isn’t great. And I know that Dak has struggled in many of his 6 postseason starts. But I really think that Dak has turned a corner this year. He is an elite QB, and this is coming from a guy who has been as critical of Dak as anyone in recent years. I just didn’t believe he was the guy. He shut me up with his play this season, and he is going to shut up any haters that still remain this postseason.
The Cowboys will win this game, but some garbage time points will help the Packers to cover the spread and make the final score closer than the game actually was.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Packers 27
Ben: I thought that this year’s Cowboys were different. I was wrong.
Dak Prescott is playing the best football of his career. CeeDee Lamb has transformed from a budding star into one of the league’s most unstoppable offensive players. Micah Parsons is still one of the most multi-talented edge rushers in football. Stephon Gilmore and Daron Bland have elevated their already outstanding play in the secondary to a remarkable degree despite the absence of Trevon Diggs. Brandon Aubrey has had one of the greatest seasons ever for a kicker in terms of both power and accuracy. They finally took back control of the NFC East, winning the division over their hated rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles. And yet, there are dire concerns impossible to ignore with this team. The run game has been inconsistent. The linebacker core is weak. They commit dumb penalties way too often. Most importantly, I don’t trust Mike McCarthy as a head coach given his extensive track record of playoff failure.
Green Bay will travel to Dallas for this pivotal game. The franchise finally moved on from the Aaron Rodgers era in the offseason, and as a result, this season was expected to be the first year of a rebuild. As with any rebuild, the key to future success is to figure out what works and what doesn’t, specifically to decide which members of the organization are worth locking down for the long haul. In this vein, all eyes turned to Jordan Love, the former first round pick who had been buried behind Aaron Rodgers. As it turns out, the Packers could very well have their next franchise quarterback. Favre begrudgingly handed the keys to Rodgers, and Rodgers begrudgingly handed the keys to Love. Each new QB followed in the footsteps of their legendary predecessor and showed immediate promise. Love is similar to both Favre and Rodgers in a few key ways. He has the strong arm, the poise in the pocket, the accurate deep ball, and is an average athlete who only uses his legs when absolutely necessary. While Love did take the team to the final playoff spot in the NFC, the rest of the Packers have been a mixed bag all season. The defense, coordinated by Joe Barry, has been a hot mess more often than not despite their obvious individual talent on that side of the ball (Rashan Gary, Jaire Alexander, Kenny Clark, and more). The offense tends to run hot and cold, with an inconsistent and inexperienced receiving core being a key concern.
I can’t allow myself to trust the Cowboys. By every indication, they should have no problem trouncing the Packers and I do expect the Cowboys offense to put up points in bunches. However, I can’t shake the feeling that they’re going to collapse at the crucial moments in the game just like the Dallas teams we’ve seen in the last few decades.
Score Prediction: Packers 28, Cowboys 27
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (DET -3.0)
Sunday, January 14th, 8:00pm EST on NBC
Ryan: The Lions have not won a playoff game since 1991. Back then, I was not even born. Hell, my parents were not even married yet. That’s also the last time the Twins won a World Series. I just got excited because I realized that if the Lions win a playoff game this year, maybe the Twins will win the World Series this year. I am getting sidetracked.
Anyway, back to football. Lions. Rams. The Lions are making their first playoff appearance since 2016. Who was under center that day? None other than Matthew Stafford. Life always comes full circle, doesn’t it?
The Rams season has an almost identical arc as that of the Packers. Following a Week 9 loss, the Rams found themselves at just 3-6 as they entered their bye week. But during that bye week, Sean McVay conjured up some sort of secret sauce. Following the bye, Matthew Stafford was fantastic, and the Rams won 7 of their last 8 to finish the season at 10-7. They even clinched their playoff berth a week early and were able to rest Stafford, Kupp, and Williams in Week 17. In Stafford’s 7 games after the bye, he completed 66% of his passes for 270+ yards a game, while throwing 16 TDs and 4 INTs. He found his fountain of youth, and now he goes back to where it all started. Detroit, Michigan.
I love this Lions team, and that’s a big statement coming from a Vikings fan. Ever since Dan Campbell’s introductory press conference – the one where he promised to bite the opponent’s knee caps off – I have been enamored with this man. The Lions play EXACLTY like he promised they would. They’re hungry. They’re feisty. They’re fun! Rookie sensation Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery form a two headed monster in the backfield, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has turned into a superstar wide receiver seemingly overnight. Sam LaPorta just put together arguably the greatest rookie tight end season ever, but he is questionable to play in this one after suffering a knee injury in Week 18, a week in which the Lions had little to play for. They needed both the Cowboys and the Eagles to lose in order to climb to the #2 seed in the NFC. With the Cowboys playing the Commanders and the Eagles playing the Giants, it was highly unlikely that they would both lose. The Eagles fell to the Giants, but the Cowboys dismantled the Commanders, which led many to question Campbell’s decision to play his starters in what was, more or less, a meaningless game. But if you thought for a second that Dan Campbell wasn’t going to take the risk and go after the #2 seed, no matter how unlikely it was, you’ve never listened to a word he has said. He was never ever resting the starters. And I bet even with the LaPorta injury, he’d make the same exact decision again if he had to do it over.
The Lions offense is solid, even with Goff under center. The defense, however, scares me. They just have not been good, especially against opponent’s top pass catchers. The last two weeks, here is what they have allowed to the opponent’s #1 wideout:
- CeeDee Lamb: 13 catches, 227 yards, TD
- Justin Jefferson: 12 catches, 192 yards, TD
The Rams have two great #1 wide receivers in their own right in Cooper Kupp and the rookie who took the world by storm, Puka Nacua. One of those two guys, if not both, will go crazy. Stafford is going to be sharp. Goff will struggle. The Lions’ drought will continue, and with that, so will the Twins’.
Score prediction: Rams 27, Lions 23
Ben: It’s been a long time coming for the Detroit Lions. For the first time in 30 years, the pride of the Motor City won their division. As NFC North champions, boasting a 12-5 record, they claimed the 3rd seed in the NFC Playoffs and will host a playoff game for the first time in the Ford Field era. After a surprisingly strong 9-8 season in 2022, the organization placed their complete faith in Dan Campbell, and he rewarded them handsomely. The Lions mortgaged their immense haul of draft assets to land four outstanding rookies in the 2023 NFL draft; electric running back Jahmyr Gibbs, cerebral linebacker Jack Campbell, do-it-all defensive back Brian Branch, and tight end Sam LaPorta. LaPorta has been the marquee member of this outstanding group, setting the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie tight end (86) and tying Rob Gronkowski for the 2nd most touchdowns by a rookie tight end (10). Unfortunately, LaPorta was injured in the team’s season finale against the Vikings and is questionable for their Wild Card game. The Achilles heel of Dan Campbell’s gritty, hard-nosed, excellently coordinated squad is their secondary. When Aidan Hutchinson and the rest of the pass rushers on the Lions fail to put pressure on the pocket in a timely manner, there are wide open receivers all over the field for the quarterback to easily pick out and accurately target.
Speaking of quarterbacks, this matchup will serve as the long awaited return to Detroit for Matthew Stafford, the legendary Lions quarterback who was the face of the franchise for 12 years. Stafford was traded to the Rams for Jared Goff and significant draft compensation in a move which was incredibly beneficial for both sides. Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl win against the Bengals two seasons ago, while Goff has revived his career in Detroit. Goff isn’t the most consistent or dynamic QB around, but at his best (usually at home), he is more than capable of controlling the game with a balanced passing attack. The Rams defense, anchored by defensive tackle Aaron Donald, one of the single greatest defensive players in the history of the sport, is a decent unit. They’ve certainly punched above their talent level and expectations this season. Regardless, this game will come down to whether Stafford and his two outstanding pass-catchers, Super Bowl LVI MVP Cooper Kupp and record-breaking rookie Puka Nacua, can outscore the Lions potent offense.
It’s hard to bet against the better quarterback (Stafford) and the more experienced team (the Rams) in a playoff game, but the Lions have been working for years to get to this moment. I think they’re ready to seize it in front of their raucous fans.
Score prediction: Lions 31, Rams 28
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PHI -3.0)
Monday, January 15th, 8:15pm EST on ESPN
Ryan: What a tale of two seasons it has been for the Eagles this year. They started 10-1, and Jalen Hurts was the MVP front runner with top target AJ Brown setting the world on fire in the process. It looked all but set that the NFC would once again run through Philadelphia. But then, it all fell apart just as quickly as it had come together. They got hammered by the Niners in their own stadium. Then they got destroyed in Dallas at the hands of their division rivals. Then they dropped a heartbreaker in Seattle. Then they nearly blew a huge lead at home against the Giants. Finally, they lost their final two games of the season, a home loss to the Cardinals and a road blowout at the hands of the Giants. In that Giants game, things got so bad so fast that Philly pulled their starters in the 2nd quarter. A 1-5 finish makes the Eagles 11-6 and forces them to travel to Tampa this weekend. Jalen Hurts has battled through injury and struggled mightily. He’s still nowhere near 100%. AJ Brown is also injured and did not practice this week. It’s unclear whether he will play. The defense, which is dynamite on paper, has also struggled mightily down the stretch. The Eagles seem like a sinking ship that their fans are ready to jump off into the icy depths.
On the other side, you have a team that is the exact opposite of the Eagles at the current moment. The Bucs were winners of 5 of their last 6 games, which allowed them to come back from the dead to win the bizarre, topsy-turvy NFC South and host a playoff game this weekend. That stretch featured decisive, impressive wins in Green Bay and at home against the Jaguars. Mike Evans had yet another 1,000-yard season. Rachaad White got better and better as the team’s lead back as the season went on. And the defense has been solid as usual, led by stud linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White, and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., a Minnesota Gopher all-time great! Go Gophers! Row the Boat!
Now let’s talk about the Bucs QB. Baker Mayfield. A winner through and through. This guy has the heart of a champion. He, like Hurts, has also battled many injuries this season, but my goodness has he battled, which is the story of his entire career. A Heisman winner at Oklahoma, there were doubters from day 1. He wasn’t an NFL QB, they said. His arrogant antics were setting him up for failure, they said. His time in Cleveland was up and down. A solid rookie campaign followed by a sophomore slump. It looked like he had turned the corner after a fantastic third year where he led the Browns to their first playoff win in ages, but year 4 was pretty bad and the Browns were ready to move on. 2022 seemed like a wasted year, until he was picked up late in the year by the Rams after Stafford suffered a season ending injury. Mayfield played well in 4 starts with the Rams. Those 4 starts are very likely why the Bucs signed him to be their starter this offseason. This season, Baker set a career high in completion percentage and touchdown passes and he took good care of the ball. It was the type of season Baker needed. He will be a starter again in 2024, whether that’s with the Bucs or elsewhere. Needless to say, Baker Mayfield has silenced all the critics with his play in 2023. The next step? A playoff win versus the Eagles.
The Eagles are the better football team on paper, but like I said earlier, they are a sinking ship. The momentum favors the Bucs, and Baker Mayfield is going to REFUSE to lose this football game. Yes, I am probably the biggest Baker fan in the world, but that is not the reason for this pick. It’s just two teams going in two completely opposite directions. The Eagles are about to hit the iceberg, while the Bucs are going to eat a W.
Score Prediction: Bucs 20, Eagles 17
Ben: The Tampa Bay Bucs won the NFC South. Congratulations to them, they were the least bad team in the lame duck division this year. Their reward is hosting a playoff game against the coldest team in the entire league. The Philadelphia Eagles are in freefall. After a 10-1 start with some warning signs for regression to the mean, the pendulum swung more violently than anyone could have expected. They finished 11-6, including two losses in must-win games against the Cardinals (home) and the Giants (away), two lowly opponents who both outclassed the defending NFC Champions in virtually every facet of football. Jalen Hurts is, well, hurt. He has a dislocated finger from their season finale in New York, and even before then, his once-strong connection with his wide array of weapons (Brown, Smith, Goedert, Swift, etc.) has fizzled out. The offensive play calling is dull, uninspired, disjointed, and the football on that side of the ball has been very ugly for the Philly faithful to watch. Meanwhile, the defense has become a complete disaster. They’ve only gotten worse since they handed over defensive duties to Matt Patricia (yes, the one who was an embarrassing excuse for a head coach with the Detroit Lions). Their aging secondary is swiss cheese. Their pass rush has inexplicably evaporated. Their linebacker core has been a revolving door of disappointment. In all honestly, the only reliable thing about the Eagles this year has been the legendary leg of kicker Jake Elliot.
Baker Mayfield has quietly put together an extremely solid season. Granted, the Bucs have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the league (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), a very solid offensive line, and a passable run game to help him out, but I’m going to give credit to Mayfield because he deserves it. He was scapegoated in Cleveland after playing through a gruesome shoulder injury despite the fact that he had helped turn the franchise around in the first place. He showed flashes of his former self with the Panthers and Rams. The Bucs took a flyer on him this season, and he definitely knew it was his final chance to salvage his career as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s taken that chance extremely well, putting together a season where he started every game, put up a career-high 28 touchdowns compared to just 10 interceptions, and completed a career-high 64.3% of his passes.
The Eagles aren’t serious contenders this year, and they know it. The vibes couldn’t be worse. The Bucs haven’t been consistent as a team this year, particularly on defense, but Baker has. This game is his moment, his opportunity to seize a second chance to prove that he’s worthy of being a cornerstone to build around for an NFL franchise. I’m riding with Baker and the Bucs.
Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Eagles 20
Who’s moving on, and who’s going home? Comment down below!
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Authors: Ben Pawlak and Ryan Macdonald
Published: 1/13/24 at 12pm EST
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Sources/Works Cited:
Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.
Sports Reference LLC. Pro-Football-Reference.com – Pro Football Statistics and History. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. 22 January 2022.
StatMuse, https://www.statmuse.com/.
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