The MVP Blog is proud to present yet another round of previews and predictions for the NFL Playoffs. Last week, in the Wild Card round, Ben correctly predicted the winner in 5 of the 6 games (incorrectly taking the Browns over the Texans) while Ryan correctly predicted the winner in 4 of the 6 games (incorrectly picking the Cowboys and Rams to win their games against the Packers and Lions, respectively). This weekend, fans will be treated to 4 tantalizing Divisional Round matchups between the 8 teams left standing.

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By now, you all know the drill. Let’s get down to business.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -9.5)

Saturday, January 20th at 4:30pm EST on ESPN

Ben: The top-seeded Baltimore Ravens will awake from the bye week they earned to host the red-hot Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round. The Texans are riding high headed into this matchup, and they’re playing with house money. Nobody expected them to be here. C.J. Stroud is a rookie, he’s not supposed to be playing like a borderline top 5 QB in the league and elevating that form in the playoffs against the league’s top defense (16/21, 272 yards, 3 TDs). DeMeco Ryans is a first-year head coach leading a youthful, inexperienced team complete with a few vets on rental deals, he’s not supposed to be winning the AFC South and making his Coach of the Year candidate counterpart look silly in a 45-14 demolition job.

Yes, the Texans trounced the top-ranked Browns defense from start to finish on their home turf, but can they do it on the road against an equally stout Ravens defense? Plus, on the other side of the ball, the Texans defense has the tall task of hoping to contain the league’s likely MVP, Lamar Jackson. At just 27 years old, Lamar Jackson has already cemented his place in NFL history as one of the greatest dual-threat quarterbacks of all time. After securing a long-term contract this offseason, he led the Ravens to the best record in the entire NFL this year, putting up historic numbers with his arm and his legs along the way. The explosive Ravens offense is comprised of equal parts speed and ball security, complete with two stud receivers on opposite sides of the experience/age spectrum (rookie stud Zay Flowers and legendary veteran Odell Beckham Jr.). If Lamar can cap off this stellar season with the Lombardi Trophy in hand, he’ll be doing his part to fulfill the Year of the Harbaugh prophecy, which ends with Jim and John Harbaugh showing up with their respective championship hardware to an awkward family reunion.

All jokes aside, I’m really excited for this game, as I trust both offenses to get the better of the opposing defense on the day. I’m expecting a shootout that isn’t by any means a blowout (as the spread suggests), but I do think that the Ravens will emerge victorious in Baltimore on Saturday.

Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Texans 28 

Ryan: I like to bet. I am not particularly good at it, but I do very much enjoy it. There are a lot of times where I will see a spread and it just looks completely wrong. This is one of those times. About 75% of the time, Vegas knows better, and I look like a fool. But about 25% of the time, I am spot on. -9.5 is way too high of a line. Let me give you three quick reasons as to why I feel that way.

Reason #1. CJ Stroud. The rookie sensation proved in the Wild Card round that he is not about to succumb to the pressures of the postseason. In his first ever playoff action, he posted a perfect passer rating while facing what many consider to be the top defense in the NFL. His next challenge is another one of the top defensive units in the NFL, but I don’t foresee Stroud struggling on the big stage.

Reason #2. The Texans have NOTHING to lose and everything to gain. This is a franchise that won just 3 games a season ago. This is a team that entered 2023 with a new QB, a new coach, and little to no expectations. I don’t even think that fans of the team even thought that they would be playing in the divisional round. On the other side of the ball, all the pressure in the world is on the Ravens. They are the ones who were touted as Super Bowl contenders all season long. They are the ones with the MVP under center, with Lamar Jackson desperate to shed the narrative regarding his relatively underwhelming postseason career. They are the ones with the elite defense. They are the ones who everyone expected to be here. There is nothing more dangerous in the NFL than a team with nothing to lose playing against a team with high expectations.

Reason #3. The Ravens rested their starters in Week 18. They had a bye last week. I get the injury concerns, but I am just not a fan at all of resting the starters, especially when you have already locked up a bye. 2 weeks is a long time to not have any game action. You can simulate game like scenarios all you want in practice, but it’s just not the same. I am very worried about the Ravens coming out flat and falling behind early. And this is not a team that is built to play from behind. Can they come from behind? Absolutely. But this team is built around getting a lead and then running the football and dominating time of possession to see out the win.

The Houston Texans are going to cover this spread, but I think Lamar and Baltimore’s elite defense will prevail. The NFL’s top pass rush will keep Stroud uncomfortable enough and All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton (Go Irish!) will come up with a huge 4th quarter takeaway to seal the deal. I think the Texans will be winning at the half, but the experience of the Ravens is too much for Houston to deal with in the last two quarters.

Score Prediction: Ravens 35, Texans 31

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (SF -9.5)

Saturday, January 20th at 8:15pm EST on FOX

Ben: The Dallas Cowboys defense graciously set the stage for a dominant performance from Jordan Love and the Packers offense. Star running back Aaron Jones, who has had a year bogged down by injury and misuse, exploded for 3 touchdowns. The receivers and tight ends on the team, chiefly among them Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave, found themselves wide open on nearly every passing play thanks to disastrous play calling and execution from Dan Quinn’s Dallas defense. Green Bay’s defense rode the energy and momentum of their monstrous offense on the road and buoyed by the return of star defensive back Jaire Alexander, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense couldn’t keep up with the Packers. That 48-32 score indicated a Packers victory much closer than the reality indicated thanks to some garbage time points from the Cowboys, and it also marked the first time a 7-seed beat a 2-seed since the NFL expanded their playoff format. As a result of their seeding at the bottom of the NFC Playoffs, the Packers will hit the road again, this time to San Francisco to square off against the best the conference, and probably the entire NFL, has to offer.

The 49ers are an efficient football machine built to optimize the per-play production of the offense and defense. Brock Purdy has been molded by head coach Kyle Shanahan to make his dreams come true, maximizing the cost-efficiency of the quarterback position by playing steady, mistake-free football on a miniscule contract. Purdy scans the opposing defense from the league’s cleanest pocket and picks out the wide-open receiver to target, be it the dynamic Deebo Samuel, the underrated Brandon Aiyuk, the reliable George Kittle, or the MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. The Packers offensive line will do battle with one of the most fearsome pass rushes in the NFL, complete with two Ohio State edge rushers (Nick Bosa and Chase Young). The Niners’ linebacker core and secondary are just as star-studded as the rest of the squad. When they’re rolling, this is the league’s most complete team from top to bottom.

Will they be rolling on Saturday night, or will Jordan Love ace yet another massive test in his young career? My verdict: While it wouldn’t shock me if the 49ers aren’t at their best during this game, unless the Packers put together another perfect game on the road against a significantly tougher opponent than the Cowboys, Green Bay’s fairytale late-season run will end in San Francisco.

Score Prediction: Niners 27, Packers 20

Ryan: Go reread everything I wrote above about the Texans/Ravens game and insert it here.

The similarities between the two matchups are frightening. The spread is the same, and it again just feels like a bad line. Just like CJ Stroud, first year starter Jordan Love is another budding superstar that had a perfect passer rating in his playoff debut. Just like the Texans, who blew out the Browns a week ago, the Packers blew out the Cowboys. Just like the Texans opponent this week, the Packers opponent also rested their starters in Week 18 and clinched a bye in the Wild Card round.

For the Niners, their Super Bowl expectations exist thanks to their four offensive superstars. Christian McCaffery. Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk. George Kittle. No other offense in the entire league has the offensive firepower that the 49ers do. The performance of Brock Purdy is the one and only thing that can stop this offensive juggernaut. Unlike a lot of people, however, I am a Purdy believer. I think he can and will shine on this stage. People seem to forget that he had 330 yards and 3 scores in his playoff debut a year ago.

The Packers cannot make this game a shootout. Unlike the Cowboys, the Niners will actually cover the route runners, plug up the holes in the run game, and make things tough on the Packers all game. The Packers have to get Aaron Jones running down the throat of the Niners defense if they want to win. He has not played much this season. He is as fresh as could be, and it’s shown the last few weeks. Let him cook and control the clock. The best way to beat an elite offense is to keep them on the sidelines.

I think both offenses will be able to move the ball, but in the red zone, I think the Niners come away with touchdowns while the Packers settle for field goals. I trust the Niners defense much more than the Packers.

Score Prediction: Niners 24, Packers 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (DET -6.0)

Sunday, January 21st at 3pm EST on NBC

Ben: It finally happened. The Detroit Lions have won a playoff game for the first time in 32 years, and the usual suspects were at their best. Jared Goff was once again superb at Ford Field, leading 3 straight touchdown drives to keep the Lions in front despite a barrage of early points from Stafford’s Rams. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery chewed up yards and clock all game to manage that lead superbly. Sam LaPorta battled through the injury he sustained at the end of the regular season to piece together yet another great game. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds were electric out wide. Dan Campbell’s defense looked shaky early, but as the game progressed, they started getting more pressure on Stafford in the pocket and fed off the energy of their home crowd to impose their physicality at key moments. They were as hungry for that playoff win as I’ve seen any team in recent memory, and their effort paid off with a cathartic victory to shed (some of) their demons. The Lions have proved that they’re for real, and given the way they’ve responded this year to heightened expectations and pressure, nobody should doubt their potential to make a run in the playoffs. They can feel the gravity of this massive opportunity, and they’re ready to seize it.

Speaking of seizing the moment, how about Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Mayfield was at his best at Raymond James Stadium on Monday night as Tampa Bay sent Philly packing. He was slinging the ball all over the field, even though Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went quiet. Instead, he struck a strong connection with two unheralded young standouts, tight end Cade Otton and wide receiver Trey Palmer. Rachaad White pitched in with some slippery runs, evading tacklers with force and finesse to pick up key first downs, and the leg of Chase McLaughlin was booming all night. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs defense put together their best performance of the season, holding the Eagles to just 9 points and even stifling a “tush push” attempt on a 2-point conversion. Granted, the Eagles have been lost on offense (and defense, and in general) for the last month and change, but I’m giving the Bucs credit where it’s due. Todd Bowles’ gameplan on that side of the ball was apparent and effective. They limited big passing plays and gave their excellent linebacking core the freedom to decide when to send extra rushers after Hurts and when to drop into pass coverage. Against the Lions, the Bucs won’t need to worry about Goff’s legs doing any damage outside of the pocket. However, they will need to stop (or at least slow down) Detroit’s outstanding run game to get the ball in the hands of Baker and the offense as much as possible.

This matchup should be a fun one. Two quarterbacks playing their best ball at the right time, two offenses running red hot with dangerous weapons everywhere, and two defenses that are much better than their regular season stats suggest. I think that if the Lions can take the lead early in front of their fans, they can control the time of possession (and therefore the game) with their lethal ground game to see out another victory.

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Bucs 23

Ryan: Before I give you my well thought-out, in-depth analysis, I must first talk to you about a guy who has made a meteoric rise in this league. Amon-Ra St. Brown. Coming out of high school, St. Brown was a top-10 player in his class. The 5-star prospect chose USC over the likes of Notre Dame, Michigan, Alabama, and Georgia. You name a college program, and you best believe they desperately wanted to earn St. Brown’s commitment. St. Brown would play 2 full seasons plus the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season at USC before declaring for the draft. In 30 career college games, he totaled just short of 2,300 yards and found the endzone 16 times through the air and once on the ground. He had a very nice college career, but with a prospect of that magnitude, one would hope for Marvin Harrison Jr. or Rome Odunze type stats. Once thought of as a surefire future first round pick, the Lions were able to snag St. Brown in the 4th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. After a very successful rookie campaign and an even more promising second year, St. Brown emerged as one of the game’s best receivers in his third season, posting 119 receptions for 1500+ yards and 10 scores in 2023. In just three seasons in Detroit, he has racked up 315 receptions, 3,588 yards, and 21 touchdowns. Outside of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase, I am not sure that there is a wide receiver in the league that I would rather have on my team than Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are now winners of 6 of their last 7 games after dismantling the struggling Philadelphia Eagles a week ago in Tampa. Among those 6 wins are emphatic victories over the scorching hot Packers (at Lambeau!) and the Jaguars fighting desperately for a playoff berth. The defense, led by All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (Ski-U-Mah!), has been at the top of their game recently, while Baker Mayfield and the offense score enough to win. A week ago, Baker picked apart the Eagles defense to the tune of 337 yards and 3 scores. In 3 career playoff games, Baker Mayfield now has 7 touchdowns to only 1 interception. If you even remotely followed his college career, it should not be a shock at all that Baker is at his best when the lights are the brightest.

I wrote last week about the struggles of the Lions secondary against opponent’s top pass catchers. It continued against the Rams, as rookie sensation Puka Nacua set NFL postseason records with his 181-yard performance. Look for Mike Evans to get whatever he wants in this one.

The Bucs are going to win this football game thanks to their passing game and Baker Mayfield is going to play in the 2024 NFC Championship game. Perhaps the biggest reason that I am picking the Bucs? All four home teams are not going to win. One road underdog will win.

Score Prediction: Bucs 23, Lions 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (BUF -3.0)

Sunday, January 21st at 6:30pm EST on CBS

Ben: The big one. Mahomes versus Allen, part three. This time, in Orchard Park, New York.

In the 2021 AFC Divisional Round, we were treated to one of the greatest games of football ever played. Allen and Mahomes led their respective armies into battle at Arrowhead in a rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship, a game which the Chiefs comfortably won thanks to their explosive offense. Same teams, same venue, and eventually, the same result, but the way we got there was nothing short of legendary. Allen was 27 for 37 through the air, racking up 329 yards and 4 passing touchdowns (all of them being missiles to wideout Gabe Davis at clutch moments), and took 11 carries for 68 yards as a bonus. Most of those yards came from stamping his trademark onto the game, turning nothing into something by evading pass rushers in the pocket and running over anyone in his path in the open field. Meanwhile, Mahomes was equally masterful with his arm and his legs, compiling 378 pass yards (33/44 on throws) and 3 passing touchdowns (one each to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Byron Pringle) with 69 rushing yards plus a memorable diving touchdown. The Bills were up by 3 with 13 seconds left thanks to an absolute dime by Allen to Davis to retake the lead, but as everyone knows, Buffalo couldn’t shut the door. Sean McDermott (and specifically, former Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier) inexplicably dialed up prevent defense with their secondary cheating to take away the sidelines, and that was all the license Mahomes needed to use the middle of the field to drive Kansas City into field goal range. Butker nailed the long kick as time expired to take the game into overtime, the Chiefs won the coin toss, and Josh Allen never touched the ball again as Mahomes put together a game-winning touchdown drive punctuated by a picture-perfect back shoulder pass to Travis Kelce. While the Chiefs didn’t end up with a Super Bowl to cap off that season, that 42-36 victory over Buffalo felt like the Super Bowl. The stakes, the talent on display, the atmosphere, everything about it was absolutely special.

But enough about the past. Let’s talk about the present, since a lot has changed for both of these teams since that game for the ages in 2021.

At the start of the season, most people expected the Bills to find their way back to the AFC Divisional Round. However, 12 games through the season, they had just a 5% chance to make the playoffs at all with a 6-6 record. Since that point, they’ve won 6 straight, including victories over the Chiefs (on the road!), the Cowboys, the Dolphins, and last week, a playoff win over the Steelers. The Bills were playing the hits in the Wild Card round. The game was postponed a day due to a blizzard turning Western New York into the world’s most dangerous snow globe. Josh Allen was excellent, throwing frozen ropes to tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid for touchdowns and adding another with his legs in a 52 yard rumble. Stefon Diggs played the decoy role yet again, dragging Pittsburgh’s defensive backs out of the play time and time again to help open up space for the rest of the offense. In this vein, talented young slot receiver Khalil Shakir displayed outstanding balance, speed, and athleticism on another Allen passing touchdown. James Cook was picking up yards in bunches on the ground. Meanwhile, defensive players continued to drop like flies for the Bills. Standout second-year linebacker Terrel Bernard left the game on a cart with a nasty ankle injury, while All-Pro cornerback Taron Johnson was removed from the game due to concerns over a possible concussion. Those two, plus A+ trade deadline pickup Rasul Douglas and streaky wide receiver Gabe Davis, are questionable for the Divisional Round. Buffalo’s star defensive duo of linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre White remain out long-term, while Von Miller, who tore up his knee last season and returned from surgery/rehab midway through the season, is still a long ways away from his usual standard of play (in terms of both performance and playing time) out on the edge. It’s been a “next man up” season for the Bills defense, to varying degrees of success. Against the Steelers, former 1st round pick Kaair Elam got the call at cornerback and recorded an interception in the red zone. Other backup defensive backs were relied upon as well, including Dane Jackson (awesome, as usual!), Damar Hamlin (didn’t do much, but great to see him out there!), and Cam Lewis (please stop giving him snaps!). A.J. Klein was packing up for a family vacation in sunny Florida when McDermott gave him the call that he’d be active for the Wild Card game. Klein packed up his football gear, drove up to Buffalo, and led the team in tackles for the game despite not seeing a snap until the second half, when he was called upon to fill in at linebacker for the injured Bernard.

The Chiefs took care of business at home against the Dolphins with temperatures in the negatives. Patrick Mahomes was throwing dimes, but as has been the case this season, his receivers weren’t catching all of them. To be fair to them, hauling in a frozen football is really difficult (although they do get paid millions of dollars to do that very task). Regardless, Kansas City cruised in this one. Their defense was outstanding, harassing Tua Tagovailoa all game with a relentless pass rush and a secondary which jammed up Miami’s litany of ultra-fast receivers at the line of scrimmage. Steve Spagnuolo has done an outstanding job as defensive coordinator all season with the Chiefs, and his gameplan to ensure the Dolphins offense never got in sync was executed to perfection by his players. While it wasn’t pretty offensively, a heavy dose of angry runs from Isaiah Pacheco and some typical Andy Reid trickery in the red zone kept the game well out of reach. Regardless of the comfortable victory, big questions still remain for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Can the Chiefs offense, particularly the connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, finally find that extra gear they’ve shown in years past? Can Patrick Mahomes stay composed in the first road playoff game of his career? Can the Chiefs defense keep carrying this team to victories in games when that unit is on the field for long stretches of time?

My verdict? Mahomes and the Chiefs will rise to the occasion and re-establish their playoff dominance over the Buffalo Bills in this era of football. It’s going to be another classic game, and both quarterbacks are going to show out, but ultimately, the Chiefs defense will be able to make the crucial stops that the banged-up Bills defense can’t.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 24

Ryan: As I told you last week, Ben is the Bills guy. I’m going to let him cook and tell you all about why the Bills are going to lose this football game, but just remember that he is a traumatized fan. After his novel, I will keep my prediction short and sweet.

The Buffalo Bills are going to win this football game because they are the better all-around team and they are finally playing the Chiefs at home. All the Bills need to do is cover Rashee Rice and the Chiefs offense will be rendered virtually useless. Josh Allen is going to flex his muscle and Orchard Park is going to be the biggest party in the world on Sunday Night.

If Allen can’t beat Mahomes in the playoffs this season, I am not sure that he ever will.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 13

Who’s moving on, and who’s going home? Comment down below!

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Authors: Ben Pawlak and Ryan Macdonald

Published: 1/20/24 at 12pm EST

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Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.

Sports Reference LLC. Pro-Football-Reference.com – Pro Football Statistics and History. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. 22 January 2022.

StatMuse, https://www.statmuse.com/.