The MVP Blog is proud to present our previews and predictions for the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs. Last week, in the Divisional round, Ben correctly predicted the winner in all 4 games, while Ryan correctly predicted the winner in 2 of the 4 games (incorrectly picking the Bucs and Bills to win their games against the Lions and Chiefs, respectively). This brings Ben’s overall playoff record to a scorching 9-1, while Ryan is just 6-4.

This weekend, the champions of the AFC and the NFC will be crowned, meaning the matchup for Super Bowl LVIII will be set when the dust settles.

Before we get started, if you are enjoying the content, please make sure to subscribe to The MVP Blog and follow us on Twitter and Instagram.

Let’s find out who’s going to Las Vegas, and who’s going to Cancún.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -4.5)

Sunday, January 28th at 3:00pm EST on CBS

Ben: Let’s keep things pretty brief.

The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, the most talented quarterback to ever touch a football. Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs’ receiving core have finally stepped up to make some catches and plays so far this postseason. Isaiah Pacheco is as tough to bring down as any running back in this league. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been lights out all year and made crucial stops at pivotal moments against the Bills in their nail-biting victory in the Divisional Round. This team is defending the Lombardi trophy, hoping to win the big one in back-to-back years for the first time since the ’03 and ’04 New England Patriots did it.

The Ravens have Lamar Jackson, this year’s presumptive MVP. He was at his brilliant best with both his arm and his legs against the Texans last weekend. The rest of the offense has been solid (if not explosive), but there’s another gear that they have yet to find in the playoffs. Isaiah Likely and Zay Flowers are great as complimentary pieces who can chip in with splash plays, and the big name who is expected to make his long-awaited return in this upcoming home matchup is tight end Mark Andrews. Baltimore’s defense is scary good. Kyle Hamilton is one of the best defensive backs in football. Roquan Smith is the league’s best linebacker marshalling one of the NFL’s most disruptive front 7s. M&T Bank stadium is going to be a madhouse on Sunday. This is the first real chance the Ravens have had to make the Super Bowl in the Lamar era. They’re the top dogs with a point to prove. The only thing left is for them to go and take it.

Unfortunately, they won’t be able to. Mahomes is inevitable. For the first three quarters, this will be a gritty, defensive affair, but the best quarterback we’ve ever seen will leave his mark on the last 15 minutes of game time to piece together a crucial game-winning drive when the Chiefs need it most. The AFC runs through Kansas City. Quite frankly, it has for a long time, and that’s not changing this year.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Ravens 23

Ryan: Patrick Mahomes is inevitable. After a very pedestrian season where the offense was downright bad at times and the pass catchers were nonexistent (besides Rashee Rice) and were doing more to help the other team than they were the Chiefs (I am looking at you, Kadarius Toney), the Chiefs find themselves right back where they have now been for 6 straight seasons: The AFC Championship Game. They are 3-2 in those previous 5 AFC Championship games in that stretch, with their two losses both coming in overtime.

Mahomes has been sharp this postseason. Travis Kelce has seemingly found a fountain of youth after a regular season in which he looked like he had finally lost a step. Isiah Pacheco has been running as hard as ever. The defense has been as good as advertised. Andy Reid just wants another cheeseburger. The Chiefs look like Super Bowl contenders at the right time, as has been the case in year’s past.

This year’s opponent is the Baltimore Ravens, the team who I have seen as the best in the NFL for the grand majority of this season. The Ravens have this year’s MVP under center, and he will have a major impact on this game both on the ground and with his criminally underrated arm. Zay Flowers is electrifying every time he gets the ball in his hands. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are both underrated backs who complement each other very well and have done an outstanding job running behind one of the better offensive lines in football. Mark Andrews seems set to make his long-awaited return, and if fully healthy, he is a colossal boost to this already dangerous Ravens offense. The Ravens also have what I believe to be the best defense in the entire NFL. The unit is led by All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton (Go Irish!) and one of the best linebacker duos in all of football with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. The Ravens feature the top pass rush in the league and were also tied for the NFL lead with 31 takeaways this season. It is an ELITE unit at every single level. This kind of defense is built to win games in January.

The Ravens home field advantage is going to be the difference in this one. In a game that seems this close on paper, I will always take the home team, especially in a game of this magnitude. The inexperience of the Chiefs pass catchers (outside of Kelce) will shine brightly amidst the deafening noise of M&T Bank. The Ravens defense will stifle the Chiefs offense all day and Lamar will make plays late with both his legs and arm to send the Ravens to their first Super Bowl since the 2012 season. Jim Harbaugh stood atop the College Football world just a few short weeks ago. Now it is time for John Harbaugh to get his chance at standing atop the NFL world once again.

Am I crazy for picking against Mahomes again? Surely. I advise none of you to follow me with this one. Never bet against Mahomes.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Chiefs 17

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (SF -7)

Sunday, January 28th at 6:30pm EST on FOX

Ben: There is no way the San Francisco 49ers lose this game, right?

The Niners have more playoff experience, from an organizational standpoint, in terms of their coaching staff, and in terms of most of the key players to feature in this NFC Championship matchup (excluding Brock Purdy). The Niners have the more talented roster, with the most complete offense in professional football and a defense capable of forcing turnovers to kill promising drives. Plus, this game is going to be played in San Francisco (the Niners actually play in Santa Clara, but whatever, that’s California for you).

The Detroit Lions aren’t supposed to be here. GM Brad Holmes isn’t a former player or business whiz who was groomed to be a future industry player, he is a coma survivor who cut his teeth at Enterprise Rent-A-Car and worked his way up the corporate latter from the very bottom when he interned with the St. Louis Rams 20 years ago. NFL fans saw head coach Dan Campbell as too aggressive, too weird, and too emotional to get a team to buy into his football philosophy. The league wasn’t surprised to see the fresh blood of Holmes and Campbell get chewed up and spat out by the typical obstacles of the same old Lions, resulting in a whopping 4-19-1 record through their first 24 games together in 2021 and 2022. The league laughed as the Detroit Lions tried to enter an era of unprecedented success by rebuilding around Jared Goff, the former #1 overall pick who was decisively not good enough for media darling Sean McVay and his Super Bowl caliber Rams squad. The league called Detroit’s bluff as they finished with a 9-8 record in 2022 and called the Lions a “feel good story” rather than a real contender when they finally broke through the glass ceiling to win an NFC North title. Those same doubters still remain after the Lions notched home playoff wins over the Rams (who have regressed a lot since their Super Bowl LVI victory) and the Bucs (who were the biggest beneficiary of the self-destruction of Dallas and Philly).

The Detroit Lions aren’t going to win because they have nothing to lose and the San Francisco 49ers are under immense pressure to fulfill their obvious potential. The Detroit Lions are going to win the NFC Championship because they’re the best damn football team in the NFC. The Lions offense is going to take care of the football and keep the Niners’ offense off the field by pounding the rock behind their fantastic offensive line. The Lions defense will be there to capitalize on the inevitable Brock Purdy mistake(s). Dan Campbell’s staff is going to outcoach that of Kyle Shanahan’s in the key moments.

The Lions, the *LIONS!*, are going to the freakin’ Super Bowl.

Score Prediction: Lions 28, Niners 27

Ryan: An elite QB tends to be a requirement to be playing this deep into the season. On the AFC side, 2 of the top 3 quarterbacks in all of football will be going toe-to-toe. In the NFC Championship game, however, we will see two incredibly mediocre QBs go to battle. Neither Brock Purdy nor Jared Goff are even borderline top-10 QBs, in my opinion. They are both within the 14-18 range. So, with very average signal callers, how do both teams find themselves on the brink of football immortality?

For the Niners, it’s about having the best skill position players in all of football. Christian McCaffery can simply do everything a coach can ask from an offensive weapon and has been more than good enough win MVP this season (but he won’t because we live in an era where a QB has to win the award, for whatever reason). Deebo Samuel is an absolute freak in both the pass and run game, but is he healthy enough to manage his normal workload? If he is not, it hurts the Niners greatly, but Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, along with CMC, are more than capable of picking up the slack in his absence. Case in point, San Francisco is the most complete offense in football. The only thing that can stop this unit is the play of their quarterback. Defensively, it is a very strong unit led by 2022’s DPOY, Nick Bosa, and another dominant linebacker duo in the form of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. This unit was tied for the lead league in total interceptions with 22. The team they were tied with? Da Bears! Who knew the Bears picked off that many passes? I certainly did not!

Moving onto the Lions. How are they here with Jared Goff under center? It all starts and ends with the run game. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are as good a 1-2 punch on the ground as you can find in this league. Montgomery is the hard-nosed, physical back who loves contact and will wear the opposing defense down by breaking tackles and gaining extra yards. Gibbs is the shifty, dynamic speedster who is an elite pass catcher and is a threat to have a house call every time the Lions get the ball into his hands. These two studs spearheaded the NFL’s 5th best rushing attack in terms of total yards. 3 of the 4 teams above them in that statistic have elite rushing QBs. Jared “cinder blocks for feet” Goff does not help in the running game whatsoever. As far as catching passes goes, it’s the Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta show. I highlighted St. Brown’s rise into superstardom last week, you can find that here so that I do not have to repeat myself. I could not be a bigger fan of his. Sam LaPorta, Goff’s second favorite target, just had what is arguably the best rookie tight end season EVER. The Lions may not have the same level of talent on their offense as the Niners do, but the Lions have some studs as well. These guys can play.

Defensively is where the Lions struggle a little bit. They have played good enough so far this postseason, but they certainly have not been good. Remember the old saying “offense wins games, defense wins championships”? It may be cliche, but I really believe that it is the truth. The Ravens and Niners both have elite offenses with elite defenses as well, which is why I’m picking both of these teams to move on to the Super Bowl. Detroit can keep up with San Fran offensively, but the defense just is not there yet. I don’t trust this group to get the big stop or the big takeaway to flip the game on its head when the moment presents itself.

Lions fans don’t want to hear it, but this team is still 2 to 3 years away from being a real contender, in my opinion. The Rams and Bucs were good teams. The Niners are an ELITE team. It was a fun season and a heck of a story, but the dream season is about to come to a crashing halt.

Score Prediction: Niners 34, Lions 23

Which teams are headed to Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII? Comment down below!

——————————————————————–

Authors: Ben Pawlak and Ryan Macdonald

Published: 1/28/24 at 12:15pm EST

——————————————————————–

Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.

Sports Reference LLC. Pro-Football-Reference.com – Pro Football Statistics and History. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. 22 January 2022.

StatMuse, https://www.statmuse.com/.