The climax of the long, grueling 2023 NFL season: Super Bowl LVIII in Sin City. This year’s heavyweight bout will feature the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the team who many considered to be the best team in football for a majority of the season, the San Francisco 49ers. Can the Chiefs go back-to-back, or will Kyle Shannahan finally exercise his demons from 2019 and summit football’s highest peak?

Let’s take a quick look at how each team got here.

Things got off to a bumpy start for the defending champions, as the Lions came to town week 1 and showed the world that they meant business, ruining the Chiefs party and sending them to 0-1. The champs quickly rebounded and won 6 straight. The first real bump in the road was week 8 against the 2-5 Broncos. The Chiefs went into Denver and turned the ball over 5 times en route to an embarrassing 24-9 loss. This was the start of what was a major offensive struggle for the Chiefs this season. Over the 7 weeks following the Broncos game, the Chiefs went just 3-4, losing 3 home games to the Eagles, Bills, and Raiders and a road contest against the sizzling hot Packers. After 16 weeks of the NFL regular season, the Chiefs found themselves in unfamiliar territory at just 9-6 and the frustration was visible from everybody. The defense was playing great, but the offense could get nothing going. The Chiefs won in week 17 to clinch the division and were then able to rest a majority of their starters in a week 18 win. The Chiefs were the #3 seed in the AFC Playoffs but looked nothing like a Super Bowl team.

The Chiefs opened their 2023 playoffs by hosting the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card Round. In a game played in record low temperatures, the Chiefs absolutely dominated, disposing of the Dolphins 26-7. Mahomes was sharp. Rice and Kelce won all night. Pacheco pounded the rock. The defense was lights out. All was right in the world. But up next was possibly the biggest test of Mahomes’ career to date: his first road playoff game. The destination was snowy Buffalo, New York to endure the raucous, passionate fanbase in Orchard Park. The Chiefs came out victorious 27-24 in what was another classic back and forth playoff battle between these two franchises with elite quarterbacks. The Chiefs would then travel to Baltimore, Maryland for the AFC Championship Game to take on the Ravens, who were undeniably the best team in the AFC the entire regular season. The Mahomes-Kelce connection was there for the Chiefs the entire first half to help build a 17-7 halftime lead. The offense stalled out in the second half against the league’s top defense, but the Chiefs defense is pretty dog gone good in their own right, and they answered the bell time after time after time in the second half, coming up with a few timely turnovers to secure a 17-10 lead. After all the offensive struggles, dropped passes, awful penalties, and visible frustration, the Chiefs have put it all together in the playoffs and now have a chance to defend their Super Bowl Title.

Let’s move on to the Niners. It was much more smooth sailing for the Niners this year, although they did suffer one big bump in the road. The Niners came out of the gates like a racehorse trying to win the Triple Crown. They started 5-0, but it wasn’t just the fact that they were winning games, it was how they were doing it. They were dismantling their competition. They beat the Cowboys 42-10 in Week 5! Following that game, however, the Niners hit that bump. They suffered close road losses in back-to-back weeks against the Browns and Vikings and then lost the following week at home to the Bengals 31-17. Was it time to panic in San Francisco? San Francisco’s bye was right after the Bengals game, and it could not have come at a better time. Kyle Shannahan hit the reset button during their bye week and was able to right the ship. The Niners started throttling teams again right after the bye, beating the poor Jaguars 34-3 in Week 10. Over the course of their 6-game win streak after the bye, no team was within 2 touchdowns of the Niners. The Ravens came to town on Christmas Day in what many people thought was a Super Bowl preview. If it was, it’s a good thing for the Niners that the Chiefs beat the Ravens. The Ravens beat the Niners down in every facet of football to the tune of a 33-19 win in San Francisco. The Niners righted the ship the following week in Washington to secure the #1 seed in the NFC and were then able to rest some of their starters the following week. The Niners finished the season at 12-5 and gained the right to have the NFC Playoffs go through San Francisco.

For as easy as most of their wins were in the regular season, the playoffs have been the exact opposite. The Niners have made their fans sweat out both games to the very last whistle. After receiving the NFC’s first round bye, the Niners advanced straight to the NFC Divisional Round where they were set to take on the red-hot Green Bay Packers. Neither team got much of anything going in the first half, but Jordan Love and the Packers took control of the game after halftime. Entering the 4th quarter, the Niners trailed 21-14 and their championship hopes were hanging on by a thread. The defense stepped up in the 4th, but the offense could still get nothing going as Brock Purdy continued to struggle. Until the final drive, that is. On the final drive, Brock Purdy made correct read after correct read and was placing the football right where it had to be. A CMC TD gave the Niners the lead and a Dre Greenlaw interception, his second of the day, on the ensuing Packers drive sealed the Niners victory. Their opponent in the NFC Championship Game would be another NFC North foe in the Detroit Lions, a team coming into San Francisco brimming with confidence with very little to lose. All the pressure in the world was on the Niners, and that showed in the first half. The Lions got everything and anything they wanted on offense and for the second straight week, Brock Purdy and the Niners offense were kept at bay in the first half as the Lions raced out to a 24-7 halftime lead. Coming out of halftime, the Niners finally got some rhythm on offense and managed a field goal on their opening drive. The Lions first possession of the second half was more of the same. They marched down the field with ease, but this time couldn’t finish the drive. 4th and 2 from the Niners 28. Surely the Lions would kick the 45-yard field goal to regain the 3-score lead. Wrong. Dan Campbell elected to go for it, and the Lions didn’t get it. 5 plays later and following a miracle 51-yard connection from Purdy to Aiyuk, Purdy once again found Aiyuk, this time in the endzone, to cut the deficit to 7. On the ensuing Lions drive, rookie sensation Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled on the first play, and 4 plays later, CMC was dancing in the endzone, and the game was tied, just like that. It took the Niners all of 12 minutes to complete their comeback. The 4th quarter was more of the same. The Niners offense continued to click, and Dan Campbell once again passed up on a field goal attempt, this time with a chance to tie the score at 27 and was stuffed on 4th down. In another playoff game that they had no business winning, the Niners had found a way and were Super Bowl bound. Could this finally be the year that the Lombardi trophy goes back to the Bay?

Enough of how they got here. Let’s talk about the game. How do these two teams stack up against each other and who do we think will come out victorious.

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Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, Nevada

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (SF -1.5)

Sunday, February 11 at 6:30pm EST on CBS

Ben: It’s Super Bowl Sunday, so it’s time for Americans to do what we do best: consume! See that pizza in front of you? Eat it. See the bet that Drake placed? Tail it. See the private flight that Taylor Swift is taking from Japan to get to the game in time? Track it. See a giant QR code on your TV during a commercial? Scan it. It’s our God-given right as Americans to enjoy our national holiday to the fullest, and there’s no better place to host this event than Las Vegas. Nothing says capitalist dystopia like a city built in the middle of the desert on the backs of mob-tied casinos and corrupt politicians, a place where public education and social services are woeful and a tall boy costs $15. Las Vegas has no cultural identity; it is a blank canvas which has been painted upon over and over by the highest bidder (like the Sphere!). Sin City wouldn’t be possible without the will of the people. At our core, humans are greedy and lustful, so it’s a rite of passage for every American to flock to Vegas at least once in our lives to drink and gamble (plus some other stuff that I won’t talk about here) to our heart’s content. All for the low price of a $10,000+ Super Bowl ticket, $1000+ on flights in and out of Vegas, and $300+ per night for a room in a motel that is nowhere near the strip.

If you peel back the glitzy curtain – the one which made the Super Bowl a worldwide spectacle for the average person and a premier advertising opportunity for massive corporations – there’s actually a football game that is going to be played both before and after the Usher halftime show that nobody asked for. I’d also like to show some class and thank the armed forces. We really don’t do that enough, so let me tip my cap to the military industrial complex for making this all possible. Hey kids, struggling in school and lacking self-esteem? Find your identity by joining the Army! The U.S. Army did not pay me to write that message, as they are currently quite short on funding with a mere $766 billion annual budget. Mahomes versus Purdy. McCaffrey versus Pacheco. Kelce versus Kittle. Deebo and Aiyuk versus… uhhhhhh… Rice, Toney, Valdes-Scantling, and Hardman? This is the chance for legends to be solidified (Coach Reid and Mahomes), narratives to be disproven (Coach Shanahan and Purdy), and sponsorships to be activated (the NFL is partnering with FanDuel, and new customers can bet just $5 to get $150 in bonus bets! How cool is that?).

The 49ers squeaked by the Packers and the Lions in unconvincing fashion to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. By besting the Dolphins in frigid conditions and the Bills and Ravens on the road, it’s clear that the Chiefs have had a much tougher road to the Super Bowl. Speaking of roads, you can hit them in the all-new 2024 Toyota Tacoma. Toyota is the Official Automotive Partner of the NFL, and the Tacoma is a stylish truck that is “built for fun!”

With a stronger defense and a better quarterback, I expect Kansas City to win the turnover battle. Taking care of the football, chewing clock, and scoring points on every drive is what this iteration of the Chiefs do best, which is the recipe for success against explosive offenses like that of the Niners. The Kansas City Chiefs will become the first back-to-back Super Bowl Champions since the New England Patriots did it in 2003 and 2004. The age of dynasties never truly ended in the NFL; the torch simply changed hands from Brady to Mahomes.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Niners 20

Ryan: Against my better judgement, I picked against the Chiefs and Mahomes in the AFC Divisional Round and did so again in the AFC Championship game. In past years, I have always lived by the mantra “when all else is equal, pick the team with the better QB,” or more specifically, “never bet against Mahomes.” So, what has changed these playoffs? I honestly don’t know. Maybe it’s the fact that Mahomes and this offense looked so pedestrian for a majority of the regular season. Maybe it’s the fact that Travis Kelce was downright bad to end the season. Maybe it’s the fact that the Taylor Swift storyline is so over blown and makes the Chiefs hard to root for (I am a huge fan of her and her music, but let’s be real, it is getting way too much attention). Maybe it’s the fact that I am ready to see somebody new host the Lombardi trophy. I really do not know what has made me bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs twice these playoffs, but I fear that I am about to do it again.

“There is no way that Brock Purdy can beat Patrick Mahomes.” These were the first words that came to my mind when the Super Bowl matchup was set, and it’s a phrase that I have seen/heard thousands of times over the course of the last two weeks. This is such a dumb way of thinking, now let me explain why. Is the QB important? Yes. It is undoubtedly the most important position on the field. Does the team with the better QB win 100% of the time? No. Not even close. Aidan O’Connell went toe-to-toe with Mahomes this season and came away with a 20-14 victory. O’Connell was 9/21 for 62 yards in that game, but that literally does not matter. He got the win. I’m sure there were plenty of people before the game who were saying that “Aidan O’Connell can’t possibly beat Patrick Mahomes.” My point is that there is a heck of a lot more to a football game that just the man under center. Now I realize this is a much bigger stage, but I would counter that by saying that Brock Purdy is also that much better than Aidan O’Connell.

In that game in which “Aidan O’Connell beat Patrick Mahomes,” Zamir White took 22 carries for 145 yards. Zamir White. It wasn’t even Josh Jacobs. It was the backup running back. This is how you beat the Chiefs. You don’t do it through the air. They have a lights out secondary that sticks to the opposition like glue, making it very difficult on quarterbacks to find an open man. The pass rush is just as good, as Chris Jones and company racked up the second most sacks in the NFL this season. If the Niners fall behind like they did against the Lions, they cannot and will not comeback. Back to the ground game. The Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season, one of the worst marks in the entire NFL. The bad news for the Chiefs? The best RB in the world will be on the opposing sideline, and he is blessed with an elite offensive line and a menacing FB. The Niners must feed CMC early and often in this one, and if they do, that will open up the passing game and this offense will have plenty of success. That’s the key to victory for the Niners. Let CMC get going early and open up space for Purdy to find your trio of elite pass catchers. Make the game slow down a bit for Purdy.

Let’s talk about the other side of things, when the Chiefs are on offense. As has already been highlighted plenty, the Chiefs struggled mightily on offense at times this season but have managed to turn things on a bit in the playoffs. The Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce connection has been dangerous once again this postseason. Pacheco has been great. The lack of weapons, however, still scares me with this unit. The Niners defense is somehow underrated at this point. Sure, they were not great against either the Packers or the Lions, but they clamped down when they had to and got the big takeaways. This is a unit that was among the league’s best against both the run and against the pass in 2023. They have a solid pass rush and a secondary that led the NFL in interceptions. Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are as good as they come at the linebacker position and Nick Bosa is still as dangerous as ever. People being concerned about this defense is so silly to me. Just like the offense, they have playmakers all over the field. They will show up ready to play. I am not saying that they will completely shut Mahomes down, but they will do enough to keep him at bay.

I said earlier that “when all else is equal, pick the team with the better QB.” Although I do like Brock Purdy and am adamant that he does not get enough credit, he is not even in the same zip code as Patrick Mahomes. Let’s be honest. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the only 2 QBs in the league who are in the same zip code, but they live across town, not in the same neighborhood. Tom Brady is still the GOAT in my eyes, but Mahomes is closing that gap quickly.

BUT. All else is not equal, in my opinion. The Niners have the best RB in the world. They have far better weapons out wide. The Chiefs defense is getting all the attention, but the Niners defense is just as good the way I see it. Kyle Shannahan is a heck of a coach and will not be fazed by the moment. Might I remind you that he was the OC for the Falcons team that blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. Might I remind you that he lost the Super Bowl in 2019 to the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs. He has been at this stage before and has undoubtedly learned from his past shortcomings. Andy Reid is as good a coach as there is in the NFL, but Shannahan is not far behind. The QB position is really the only place where the Chiefs have a definite advantage. And like I have already said, there is so much more to football than just the quarterback.

“There is no way that Brock Purdy can beat Patrick Mahomes.” You are right. If this was a Nike 7 v. 7 camp where all else is equal, Patrick Mahomes would beat Brock Purdy handily. But it is not. This is very much a TEAM sport. And the Niners just have the better team around their signal caller. CMC is the difference in this one. Shannahan finally gets his hands on the prize that he has been after for so long, and the Bay area will be having a parade in a week’s time. Brock Purdy, YOU are going to be a Super Bowl Champion!

Score Prediction: Niners 27, Chiefs 23

Which team will hoist the Lombardi trophy? Comment down below!

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Authors: Ben Pawlak and Ryan Macdonald

Published: 2/11/24 at 1:00pm EST

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Sources/Works Cited:

Google Images, Google, https://images.google.com/imghp?hl=en.

Sports Reference LLC. Pro-Football-Reference.com – Pro Football Statistics and History. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. 10 February 2024.

StatMuse, https://www.statmuse.com/.